New Zealand election ends in cliffhanger as Luxon, Hipkins battle for power; early results awaited

Wellington: Polling places closed on Saturday after the final day of voting in New Zealand's election following a tense campaign that left the main contenders neck and neck with no clear route to victory for either.

An incumbent conservative government led by the National party is seeking a second term against a leftwing bloc led by Labour.

In polls close to election day, neither Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of National nor opposition leader Chris Hipkins of Labour had a clear path to victory, with minor parties on the ideological flanks expected to hold sway over the next government's formation.


Voting began on October 26 and ended on Saturday at 7 pm. New Zealand's Electoral Commission aimed to release a count of 5 per cent of the vote within 30 minutes of polls closing.

Results from 95 per cent of ballots cast are expected by the end of Saturday night. A final, verified tally is due on November 27, including results from votes cast by New Zealanders living abroad.

Analysts said the fate of both rightwing and leftwing blocs was unclear before the vote

Luxon, who took office in 2020, faces a tough fight for a second term as prime minister after facing two confidence votes among his own lawmakers this year. Meanwhile, Hipkins seeks a second chance at power after a resounding defeat three years ago.

Voting began October 26 with nearly 3.8 million people eligible to cast ballots in the South Pacific country of 5.6 million people. New Zealand has a single house of government, and there are no states. The central government, elected for three-year terms, holds ultimate power over the country's direction.

Ahead of election day, analysts didn't see a simple route to a majority for either the three-party rightwing bloc or a three-party leftwing coalition. The uncertainty may reflect voter discontent about both major parties as economic problems linger following international shocks that have buffeted New Zealand's trade-based economy.

New Zealanders don't elect prime ministers. Instead they cast two votes, one for their preferred party and one to select a local representative.

To govern, a coalition of parties must hold more than half of parliament's seats. The total number of seats is determined by official calculations on election night based on quirks of the country's vote.

Economic malaise and cost of living have been central campaign issues

National in 2023 joined with two right-wing parties, populist New Zealand First and libertarian ACT, to form the country's most conservative modern government. Detractors of Luxon, a business executive who entered parliament in 2020, note his political inexperience compared to the minor party leaders in his power-sharing deal.

Both are veteran politicians who extracted wide policy concessions from Luxon. The Prime Minister took power on promises of fueling economic recovery from the pandemic era, but unemployment in the September quarter reached its highest level in 15 years.

On Hipkins' side, the left-wing Green party has also experienced strong support. Another traditional Labour coalition partner is Te Pati Maori, an Indigenous rights group.

Hipkins, a career politician, was thrust into the premiership nine months before the 2023 election when his predecessor Jacinda Ardern quit. Labour hasn't surged in popularity in the polls since losing that vote, and some detractors still associate Hipkins with pandemic-era policies they opposed.

If there is a deadlock, parties might be forced to negotiate new deals

Election deadlocks have previously seen the two blocs race to establish a coalition deal by wooing a minor party that holds the balance of power. Recent polls suggest Saturday's election could yield such a result if The Opportunity Party is elected to Parliament for the first time.

The group's candidates are centrist, socially liberal technocrats who favour a land tax, universal basic income and pro-environment measures.

The party's new leader, 38-year-old Qiulae Wong, who has worked in business but not in politics, has pledged to negotiate first with whichever party wins the most votes if she holds the tiebreaker role.

Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity. Analysts say, however, that both major party leaders would likely answer the phone if Wong held the only path to power on election night.