Mojtaba Khamenei's absence at Ali Khamenei funeral fuels questions over Iran's new leader

Paris: The absence of Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei from the funeral ceremonies of Ali Khamenei raised questions about his health and fear of assassination, as well as indicating he may perform a quite different function as number one compared with his all-powerful father.

The marathon funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, killed on February 28 in an airstrike on the first day of the US-Israeli war with Iran, culminated on Thursday in the holy city of Mashhad, with a who's who of key figures in the Islamic republic attending his burial.

Also Read: A bitterly divided Iran grapples with Ali Khamenei's legacy as he is laid to rest


Those present included speaker of parliament and chief negotiator in talks with the United States, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, powerful chief justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and Ali Khamenei's eldest son Mostafa Khamenei.

But there was no sign of Mojtaba Khamenei, who was appointed supreme leader shortly after his father's killing and has only communicated via written statements since, with no public appearances.

Despite many unverified claims and social media users scouring images of the events for a glimpse of the 56-year-old, there was no confirmed appearance from him.

Was he too badly wounded or even disfigured in the airstrike that killed his father to appear? Or is there concern that Israel or the US could directly target him too?

Also Read: Iran buries Ali Khamenei in holy shrine; new Supreme Leader remains out of sight

Whatever the case, Mojtaba Khamenei is shaping up to be a different political figure to his father -- let alone Ali Khamenei's predecessor, revolutionary founder Ruhollah Khomeini -- with even more power set to be delegated to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ideological army amid possible political infighting, analysts say.

But it is also far too early to write him off as a political actor, while disappearance and occultation are familiar themes among Iran's majority Shia population who believe in the return of the occulted twelfth imam Mahdi.

- 'Further subordinated to the IRGC' -

"His low overall public profile, and absence from his own father's funeral doesn't look good for his public image, but it may be temporary, and is manageable in the long-term," said Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

He told AFP that Mojtaba was likely absent due to "a combination of physical injury that means he's not publicly presentable" and security considerations "given the risk that public appearances will be used to track him and prepare the grounds for a future assassination".

Sabet said he expected a "power struggle" potentially involving Mojtaba and Ghalibaf, who since the war has become the most prominent public face of the Islamic republic.

"In the grand scheme though, his power and authority will be further subordinated to the IRGC," he added.

Another prominent figure who did emerge during the funeral ceremonies in Tehran was the Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi, who had not been seen during the war and whose predecessor was killed in the same strike that killed Khamenei.

Jason Brodsky, policy director of US-based think tank, United Against Nuclear Iran, said Mojtaba had relied on the support of the IRGC to win the post and was "more dependent" on the force.

"The balance of power between the office of the supreme leader and the IRGC has shifted," he told AFP.

Brodsky described Mojtaba Khamenei as a "weaker leader" than his father but noted it took Ali Khamenei "years to consolidate his authority" after being named in 1989.

He argued that while "Iran is trying to portray strength, cohesion and survival" after the war, Mojtaba's absence shows that "behind the scenes there is paranoia and fear" after not just his father but a whole layer of officials were killed in the war.

- 'Lifetime of crises to build' -

Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Mojtaba Khamenei "cannot summon Khomeini's charisma, and he cannot fake his father's authority, which took a lifetime of crises to build" while the authorities are aware that "hereditary succession" was exactly what was rejected when the Islamic revolution ousted the shah in 1979.

"Mojtaba will most likely rule through the institutions, rather than over them," he wrote on the Al-Majalla outlet.

"For most Iranians, Mojtaba will likely have even less legitimacy than his father, and appear weaker," said Sabet.

"But he can establish his authority among the regime's core followers especially if he becomes more visible later on after his injuries have healed and the security situation permits," he added.