Lula’s Brazil election win: How he thwarted Trump’s Latin America ambitions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s presidential election, winning 51.8% to 48.2%, snapped an 18-month streak of seven consecutive conservative presidential wins in Latin America, denying the region’s resurgent right a major prize.

The outcome limits U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to solidify influence across the Western Hemisphere and establishes Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country as a counterweight to Washington. A Flávio Bolsonaro victory would have left Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum as the sole progressive leader among the region’s principal powers.

The election took place on the same day Serbia’s opposition secured a notable victory, marking the start of a consequential series of global elections. These include Israel’s upcoming national election on Tuesday, its first since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, and the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3.


Also read: Lula wins a historic fourth term, but Bolsonaro's refusal to concede clouds Brazil's political future

Lula’s reelection complicates the Trump administration’s efforts to recruit Brazil into a U.S.-led anti-cartel military coalition and secure preferred access to Brazil’s critical minerals. Analysts note that Washington had been relying on tariffs, sanctions, and military backing to reinforce its regional strategy.

Following the election, Trump claimed on Monday, without presenting evidence, that the process was altered. His ally Flávio Bolsonaro has declined to concede and called for an annulment of the vote count.

“I thought it had a very bad look, the way it was tabulated,” Trump told reporters before flying to Mississippi for a rally.

However, Trump noted that he had not issued a formal endorsement in the race and spoke positively about the Brazilian president, adding, “I like Lula. I get along with him very well.”

Both governments retain incentives to cooperate. Washington seeks access to Brazil’s rare earth reserves to reduce defense sector reliance on China, while Lula is aiming for foreign investment and tariff relief for Brazilian exporters.

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“Lula is pragmatic enough to work out some kind of modus operandi with the Trump administration,” said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Freeman noted that allies of the Bolsonaro family in Washington are likely to see their influence wane following Flávio’s defeat, which follows former President Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 loss to Lula.

“I’m not sure anyone in the Trump administration, beyond a few individuals, will want to keep making the Bolsonaros the central issue in the U.S.-Brazil relationship,” he said.

Regional dynamics and security coalitions

Across Latin America, conservative candidates promising tough security measures have recently gained traction. Figures such as Peru’s Keiko Fujimori, Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella, and Chile’s José Antonio Kast have modeled aspects of their approach on El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, whose gang crackdown drastically reduced homicides while prompting criticism over mass arrests and suspended civil liberties.

Trump supported this regional movement through explicit endorsements, financial aid, and military backing.

“The U.S. is certainly putting its finger on the scale to try to help the more hard-line right-wing elements in the region,” said Kenneth Roberts, a professor of government at Cornell University.

Flávio Bolsonaro had pledged to join the U.S.-led security alliance “with great enthusiasm and great honor,” framing the partnership with Washington as a central campaign promise. Conversely, Lula has maintained Brazil’s tradition of nonalignment, expanding trade ties with China and participating actively in the BRICS bloc.

In response to double-digit U.S. tariffs levied after Brazilian authorities prosecuted Jair Bolsonaro over an alleged coup plot, Lula mobilized domestic opposition under the slogan “Brazil belongs to Brazilians.”

“To the extent that the regional superpower becomes a threat to Brazil’s democratic institutions, defending Brazilian national sovereignty also becomes a form of defending Brazilian democracy,” Roberts said.

Addressing supporters after his victory, Lula characterized the election outcome as “a demonstration that this country does not accept being anyone’s backyard.”

Critical minerals and defense disputes

Brazil has opted out of joining the Shield of the Americas, a U.S.-backed security initiative. When Washington designated two major criminal organizations in Brazil, the First Capital Command and the Red Command, as foreign terrorist groups in May, Lula warned that the designation could be used to justify external intervention.

Other nations along trade and transit corridors have cooperated more closely. In Ecuador, U.S. personnel have engaged in joint operations targeting drug distribution networks. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth noted that Honduras, Guatemala, and Colombia have agreed to joint operations, though Guatemalan officials denied participating in such agreements.

“Brazil is not Honduras. It’s a large country with a very independent history and a military that would not look kindly upon foreign troops in its own territory,” said Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. “The Trump administration will have to walk a certain line here.”

Regarding critical minerals, Lula’s administration has taken steps to secure state oversight over domestic resources, including Brazil’s massive rare earth deposits used in guidance systems, electronics, and green technologies. Following a $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazilian firm Serra Verde by U.S.-backed USA Rare Earth, Brazilian lawmakers moved quickly to strengthen regulatory controls over critical mineral exports.

“Revisiting the Serra Verde, USA Rare Earth deal may not be the first thing that Lula does when he’s reelected, but it’s on his radar,” said Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Brazil also accounts for roughly 90% of global niobium production, a key input for aerospace and defense hardware.

“Brazil has leverage,” de Bolle said. “With Lula, the U.S. is on shakier ground.”

Political challenges at home

Despite strong public rhetoric, Lula has sought working relationships with Washington. A White House visit in May focused on trade, organized crime, and critical supply chains countered claims from opponents that only a conservative administration could negotiate effectively with the U.S.

Lula faces legislative obstacles domestically. Conservative gains in the Oct. 4 congressional elections leave his administration without a reliable majority, complicating efforts to enact structural reforms amid public pressure over living costs and public safety.

“Lula has his hands tied,” said Guilherme Casarões, an associate professor of Brazilian studies at Florida International University. “Pretty much everything he has tried to do has been blocked in Congress.”

While anti-incumbent sentiment continues to affect political movements across Latin America, including newly elected conservative administrations in Chile, Bolivia, and Peru, Lula secured reelection against that regional trend. However, maintaining political support will require balancing domestic legislative compromises with external diplomacy.

(With inputs from Agency)