Kamala Harris, Trump effectively tied in final stretch of 2024 race, NYT/Siena poll shows

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris are effectively tied heading into the final weeks of the election, according to a national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

Trump is up one percentage point, 48%-47%, over Harris, according to the survey released on Sunday, a difference that is well within the survey's three-point margin of error, meaning a win for either candidate in the Nov. 5 election is well within reach.

While the Trump campaign endured a relatively rocky stretch in the weeks after Democratic President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, the most recent polling indicates the core of his support base is not going anywhere.


The poll notably showed that voters feel they need to learn more about Harris, while their opinions on Trump are largely set. In the survey, 28% of likely voters said they needed more information about the Democratic nominee, while only 9% said the same about Trump.

The poll indicates that Tuesday's presidential debate could be a crucial moment.

Harris will have the opportunity to give more detail of her planned policies as she spars with Trump over the course of 90 minutes. The race is so close that even a marginal boost for either candidate would be significant.

Since Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket over the summer, she has hit the campaign trail hard, but has limited her unscripted appearances and kept interviews with the news media to a minimum.

The key figures from the latest poll are similar to the last comparable New York Times/Siena College survey, released in late July. In that poll, Trump was also up one percentage point, a difference well within the margin of error.

Polls in the seven key swing states likely to determine the winner of the election have also consistently shown a razor-thin race. (Reporting by Gram Slattery, editing by Ross Colvin and Chizu Nomiyama)