Japan's ex-Economic Security Minister Takaichi leads race for LDP presidency as country braces for leadership shift

Japan's former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi has emerged as the leading contender to become the next president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), according to a poll released by Kyodo News, ahead of the party's leadership election set for October 4.

In a two-day nationwide telephone survey released on Friday by Kyodo News, 28% of respondents said Takaichi was the most suitable candidate to lead the LDP, followed by Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi at 22.5%, positioning them as the frontrunners to succeed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who announced his resignation on Sunday.

Despite Ishiba's resignation, a large majority, 76.4%, said they did not believe his departure would help the LDP regain public trust. However, support for his Cabinet rose slightly to 34.5%, a 1.8-point increase from the previous week, while disapproval dropped marginally to 51.4%, as reported by Kyodo News.


Among other likely candidates, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi was backed by 11.4% of respondents, followed by former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi at 6.1% and former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi at 3.6%.

Just a day after Ishiba decided to step down as president of the LDP, Motegi and Hayashi threw their hats into the ring in the race to become his successor.

The results indicate that no candidate is likely to secure a clear majority in the initial round of voting, making a runoff highly probable. The first round includes 295 votes from LDP Diet members and an additional 295 votes allocated based on ballots cast by grassroots party members, as reported by Kyodo News.

Meanwhile, among LDP supporters, Koizumi is the favoured candidate, with 36.0% selecting him as most suitable to lead the party, ahead of Takaichi at 15.7% and Hayashi at 14.9%.

The official list of candidates will be finalised on September 22, marking the start of the campaign period.

The leadership contest was moved up from its original schedule in 2027 after Ishiba's resignation, which he said was in response to the party's failure to maintain control of the House of Councillors in the July 20 elections, as reported by Kyodo News.

The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito had already lost their majority in the more powerful House of Representatives following a general election shortly after Ishiba took office in October 2024.

Currently leading a minority government, the LDP needs support from opposition parties to pass legislation. The winner of the leadership race will not be guaranteed the position of Prime Minister, which requires a majority vote in Parliament.

If Takaichi manages to get a majority, she will become the first female Prime Minister of the country.

As per Kyodo News, key issues in the leadership race include cooperation with opposition forces and internal reforms within the LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the time since 1955. The party's weak performance in recent elections has been partly attributed to a political funding scandal.

When asked which parties the LDP should consider working with, 34.3% of respondents favoured the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), followed by 31.2% for the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), 25.0% for the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), and 16.4% for the populist Sanseito party.

The DPP is currently the second-largest opposition party in the upper house, while the JIP holds that status in the lower house.