Israel's election results give neither Netanyahu nor the opposition a majority. What lies ahead?

Israel’s final election results have left the country facing political uncertainty, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the main opposition securing a majority in parliament. Weeks of coalition talks now lie ahead, with the possibility of fresh elections if negotiations fail. Potential outcomes include an alliance between Jewish and Arab-led parties opposed to Netanyahu or a deal that sees some of his election rivals join his government.

Both possibilities have prompted bitter debate in an already deeply divided country.

What comes next:


Weeks of negotiations ahead

Final results from Israel’s Central Elections Committee showed Netanyahu’s bloc winning 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, down from the 68 seats it held at its peak in the previous parliament. The main opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, secured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties won the remaining 19.

The vote count is complete, but the results must still be certified and submitted to the president by Wednesday. Although Israelis vote for parties rather than individual candidates, the election was widely viewed as a test of Netanyahu’s leadership. His Likud party received the highest number of votes but lost ground compared with the 2022 election. Turnout reached nearly 78%, the highest since 1999.

The president will soon ask a candidate to form a government. If coalition talks fail, Israel could head to another election early next year.

Netanyahu targets Arab-led parties

Arab-led parties were clear winners in Tuesday's elections, significantly increasing their total representation in the Knesset and potentially becoming kingmakers in the wrangling to form a governing coalition.

Eisenkot has left the door open to partnering with them under certain conditions, including recognition of the Gaza-based Hamas as an extremist group, but some of his other likely partners have ruled it out.

Netanyahu has refused to form a government relying on Arab parties. Now he and Likud are amplifying allegations they are stealing the election and have asked the elections committee to investigate. Likud has not shared evidence supporting the claim.

Foreign interference claims in Israeli elections

Separately, the elections committee has asked the Shin Bet intelligence service to investigate allegations of unspecified foreign interference. While the letter making the request does not mention the Arab-led parties, Netanyahu cited it in arguing that no party should cooperate with them.

Netanyahu's opponents have accused him of using scare tactics and trying to create a narrative to further discrimination against Arab-led parties and Israel's Arab citizens, who are 20% of the population.

It was not clear who made the latest interference allegations. But Qatar issued a sharp statement denying it had funded "any activities intended to influence" the elections' outcome. Many Israelis see the energy-rich Gulf Arab country as a patron of Hamas, and allegations of its influence have roiled Israeli politics in other cases.

Oct. 7's enduring impact is reflected in results

The election was held against the backdrop of the trauma of the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, when militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted 251 others, and the ensuing wars in Gaza and beyond.

The deadliest day in Israel's history featured prominently in the campaigns. Israelis tended to be focused on the security failures surrounding Oct. 7 rather than on the humanitarian situation in war-devastated Gaza.

Netanyahu has rejected an investigation into Oct. 7. His supporters say he led the country back from that difficult day and scored important achievements in wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Some of Netanyahu's opponents have said creating a commission of inquiry would be among their first acts in power.

Especially since Oct. 7, many Jewish Israelis view their Arab fellow citizens with suspicion because of their sympathies with other Palestinians.

Exemptions from military service have been divisive

The country also has been deeply divided by exemptions from military service granted to the rapidly growing ultra-Orthodox population. The exemptions are especially contentious after three years of wars, with nearly 1,000 soldiers and reservists killed.

Netanyahu's governing coalition has long relied on ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties that have demanded the exemptions remain in place. Eisenkot, who lost his son to combat in Gaza, has vowed to end the exemptions.

(With inputs from AP)