Israel, Iran war: Analysts hike oil price outlooks as Iran conflict drags on

Major brokerages have raised their 2026 average oil price forecasts as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove oil prices sharply higher this month.

Morgan Stanley raised ‌its 2027 ⁠Brent ⁠oil price forecast to $80 per barrel, saying ​it expects a lasting repricing of geopolitical risk after ​the Strait of Hormuz disruption left the market structurally tighter than previously assumed.

Brent ​crude futures were trading ⁠at $100.32 a ‌barrel by 0708 GMT on ​Wednesday, while ​U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ⁠was at $89.24.


Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes on ​Wednesday, as Iran's military rejected President ​Donald Trump's assertion that the U.S. was in negotiations to end the war.

Brokerage / Agency	Brent 2026 ($/bbl)	Brent 2027 ($/bbl)	WTI 2026 ($/bbl)	WTI 2027 ($/bbl)	Key Forecast / Commentary
Morgan Stanley	~80	—	—	—	Expects Brent to stay above $80 for rest of 2026
Goldman Sachs	85	80	79	75	Brent may spike to $110 in March–April 2026
J.P. Morgan	72	—	—	—	Brent seen at $100 (Q2), $90 (Q3), $80 (Q4)
Standard Chartered	85.5	—	—	—	Brent avg: $78 (Q1), $98 (Q2)
Bank of America (BofA)	77.5	66	—	61	Brent avg: $80 (Q2), $76 (Q3)
Barclays	85	—	—	—	Could hit $100 if Hormuz disruption lasts 4–6 weeks
ANZ	—	—	—	—	Raised Q1 2026 Brent forecast to $100
BMI	70	70	68	68	Brent avg: $67–69 in H2 2026
Citi	71	64	68	61	Brent avg: $75 (Q1), $78 (Q2), $68 (Q3)
HSBC	80	70	76	67	Moderate price outlook with slight decline into 2027
Macquarie	—	—	—	—	Prices could hit $150+ if Hormuz stays shut
UBS	72	70	68	66	Brent could cross $100–120 if disruption persists