Israel election: Netanyahu fights for political survival as October 7 fallout looms

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a tight battle for political survival in Israel's election on Tuesday. Voters are evaluating his performance following the 2023 Hamas-led attacks, subsequent military conflicts in Gaza and with Iran, and the country's growing international isolation.

Despite these challenges, Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, remains a skilled political figure. With nationalist sentiment firmly established and Israel’s political landscape fragmented, he may still be best positioned to assemble a governing coalition.

Opinion polls indicate a narrow race between Netanyahu's Likud party, along with its right-wing allies, and a rival alliance headed by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and security hawk supported by figures across the right and center.


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Voting began when polling stations opened at 7 a.m. and will conclude at 10 p.m.

Netanyahu’s campaign focuses on his wartime leadership and close ties with US President Donald Trump, who endorsed him and joined Israel in military actions against Iran. On Sunday, Netanyahu stated that Trump was prepared to act again to “finally” remove the Iranian threat, but only if Netanyahu remained in power.

Eisenkot countered by accusing Netanyahu of "relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats," while expressing confidence that Trump would work "in full cooperation with any leader chosen by the people."

To secure a majority, Netanyahu may need the support of far-right figures Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Both have drawn sanctions from several Western nations for allegedly inciting violence against Palestinians, though Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party has seen rising support in public opinion polls.

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Neither main candidate has a clear path to a majority. Should neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot manage to form a governing coalition in the 120-seat Knesset, Netanyahu could remain as caretaker prime minister until another election is called next year.

The impact of October 7

This election comes after one of the most turbulent eras in Israel's history since 1948, defined by the national trauma of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, the subsequent military offensive in Gaza, and intense domestic debates over the right-wing administration's policies.

For many critics, the election serves as a referendum on who should be held accountable for the security failures surrounding October 7, the deadliest day in the nation's history.

Mali Hajaj, an Education Ministry employee and Eisenkot supporter, said "the most important thing is the establishment of a national inquiry because that's where our healing will come from."

Lisa Tortor expressed hope that Netanyahu would step down so "they can form a new government and do some of the repairing of the damage that Bibi has done for Jews all over the world and for Israel, and Israel's image." Bibi is Netanyahu's nickname.

In contrast, Nof Gabay, an 18-year-old Likud supporter, rejected claims that Netanyahu was responsible for October 7, calling him "the right man for the state of Israel."

"Netanyahu managed the war in the best possible way," Gabay said.

Wartime assessment

Israel destroyed vast areas of Gaza during its campaign following the October 7 attacks, in which Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 people and abducted 251 hostages. Health authorities in Gaza report that Israeli military actions have killed 74,000 people.

Additionally, Israel launched severe strikes against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and engaged in reciprocal attacks with Iran, culminating in a 12-day aerial campaign targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure in 2025 and a joint US-Israeli war this year.

Eisenkot stated that Israel's next administration must prevent Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability, either by force or through an "arrangement" such as a US-backed diplomatic solution.

Coalition dynamics

In line with most Jewish-led parties in Israel, Eisenkot rejects the two-state framework that served as the foundation for decades of peace efforts with Palestinians.

However, he has publicly criticized violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, which has escalated since 2023 and damaged relations with Western allies, and opposes forming a government with Netanyahu’s far-right allies, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.

Even in traditional Likud strongholds, some dissatisfied citizens are campaigning locally to urge voters away from Netanyahu, driven in part by his ongoing criminal trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

A high turnout among Arab citizens of Israel, Palestinian by heritage, could sway the delicate coalition arithmetic toward Eisenkot.

Although Eisenkot has dismissed entering a direct partnership with Arab parties due to a lack of shared values, political analysts suggest these parties could support a minority government under his leadership to prevent Netanyahu from staying in power.

"My expectation is that we will have only a slight majority either way. No landslide," said Israeli political analyst Amotz Asa-El of the Shalom Hartman Institute.