Israel election deadlock: What are the 4 possible scenarios for forming a government?

Following an indecisive national vote this week, no clear winner has emerged to form a government. Benjamin Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister while facing a parliament where an opposition majority is seeking to remove him from office.

Below are potential scenarios moving forward:

Another election


Once the official election results are released next week, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to select the candidate he considers most likely to form a government.

Read live Israel election updates here.

If that candidate fails, a second candidate can try, and if they also fail, the Knesset may nominate a candidate. The entire process has a window of roughly 100 days. If no government is formed within that timeframe, a new election will take place.

On Wednesday, Herzog emphasized that every effort should be made to prevent another election, asking parties to participate in consultations with an open mind.

Unity government

As the largest party in the Knesset, Netanyahu's Likud party forms a coalition alongside centrist and right-wing opposition factions, such as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar (the second-largest party), Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Our Home, and Naftali Bennett's Together faction.

This group would hold 66 seats, securing a majority in the 120-member parliament.

However, this outcome currently appears unlikely. It would require Netanyahu to break away from his usual political partners—the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Additionally, opposition parties would have to go back on their primary campaign promise: unseating Netanyahu.

Nevertheless, if weeks of tough negotiations end without either camp building a government, a unity government could serve as a final resort. A resurgence in fighting with Iran or other regional forces could also drive the parties to unite.

Eisenkot minority government

Should Herzog select Eisenkot first, Eisenkot could attempt to build a government with Yashar's natural allies—Together, The Democrats, and Israel Our Home—supported from the outside by two Arab parties, Ra'am and the Joint List, without them joining the government directly.

According to recent vote counts, Eisenkot's camp holds 48 seats, while the Arab parties hold 19 seats, together reaching a 67-seat majority.

Even if Eisenkot breaks his pledge not to work with Arab parties in government and accepts their support, gaining approval from the wider public could prove difficult, as Israeli attitudes toward the Arab minority have hardened following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.

Netanyahu's campaign focused on challenging the legitimacy of support from Arab parties, which achieved record turnout in Tuesday's vote. Currently, only the centre-left party The Democrats has publicly advocated for including them.

Both Arab parties have indicated a willingness to cooperate with Eisenkot's faction.

Ra'am previously joined Bennett's government in 2021, marking the first time an independent Arab party entered an Israeli governing coalition. That government fell after 18 months.

Netanyahu finds a majority for a right-wing government

Netanyahu's coalition has dropped to 53 seats from its previous 64, based on the latest vote totals. Recognized as one of Israel's most adept politicians, Netanyahu could attempt to divide the opposition by convincing individual members to switch to his side.

He successfully used this tactic as opposition leader prior to the 2022 election, which he won. However, the rival coalition at that time held a much narrower advantage, requiring fewer defectors to undermine his political opponents.