US midterm elections 2026: Iowa’s 3rd District tests whether Democrats can win back Trump voters again

Republican Representative Zach Nunn is facing a serious challenge from Democratic state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, a race that could help decide control of the US House. Nunn won re-election in 2024 by less than four points, while Donald Trump carried the district by about 4.5 points. The contest has since moved toward Democrats in several major race ratings, although Sabato’s Crystal Ball still calls it a toss-up. Healthcare, tariffs, taxes and the impact of Trump’s tax-and-spending law are shaping the campaign.

Also Read| Trump's cure for Republicans' midterm woes is more Trump. Will it work?

The district includes the Des Moines metropolitan area and surrounding communities. Race ratings are mixed. Cook Political Report rates the contest Lean Democratic, Decision Desk also gives Democrats an edge and Inside Elections rates it Tilt Democratic. Sabato’s Crystal Ball lists it as a Toss Up.

Nunn seeks a third term

Nunn is a former Iowa state senator and Air Force veteran. He has built his campaign around national security, lower taxes, energy production, immigration and economic issues.

He has promoted his role in passing legislation on inflation, energy independence and national security. He has also highlighted tax cuts, including provisions involving tips, overtime, child tax credits and adoption benefits.

The Republican campaign is defending the One Big Beautiful Bill, the tax and spending law signed by Trump. Nunn has presented the law as a way to reduce taxes and support working families.

Trone Garriott targets healthcare and costs

Trone Garriott is an Iowa state senator, an ordained Lutheran minister and a former coordinator with the Des Moines Area Religious Council’s food pantry network. She is seeking to connect her work in state government and community services with voters’ concerns about healthcare, household costs and access to public services.

Healthcare has become a central issue in the campaign. According to the Iowa Capital Dispatch, Trone Garriott supports reversing parts of the One Big Beautiful Bill, particularly Medicaid cuts, and restoring expired Affordable Care Act subsidies.

She has also criticised tariffs, arguing that broad tariffs raise costs for families, small businesses and farmers. Her campaign has called for more stable export markets and investment in clean energy, biofuels and sustainable farming.

Also Read| Trump approval rises from record low to 32% ahead of midterm election, Reuters Ipsos poll finds

The economy is central to the race

Both candidates are trying to address concerns over prices, wages and the future of Iowa’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors.

Nunn has focused on tax relief, domestic energy and trade policies aimed at challenging China and protecting American industries. Trone Garriott has centred her campaign on healthcare costs, Medicaid, education and the effects of tariffs on families and farmers.

The candidates have also debated the impact of the federal tax and spending law. Iowa Public Radio reported that the legislation has become one of the main dividing lines in the race as its tax changes, spending reductions and healthcare provisions take effect.

What to watch

Nunn must hold Republican support in a district that backed Trump in 2024 but has a history of close House races. He also needs to persuade voters that the administration’s economic policies are helping households rather than increasing costs.

Trone Garriott must improve on the Democratic Party’s 2024 performance while keeping support among suburban voters, women, younger voters and families concerned about healthcare and education.

Turnout in the Des Moines suburbs could be decisive. The race may also depend on whether rural and small-town voters continue to prioritise national Republican issues or respond to Democratic arguments about costs, Medicaid and tariffs.

There is limited recent public polling. A March poll sponsored by a Republican-aligned group showed Nunn leading Trone Garriott 48% to 42%, while earlier surveys of the district produced closer results.

Why the race matters

Iowa’s 3rd District is a test of whether Democrats can win in a district that has shifted toward Republicans in presidential elections but remains competitive in congressional contests.

A Democratic victory would give the party a pickup in a district where Republicans have held the advantage since 2022. It would also show that healthcare and economic concerns can outweigh the district’s recent Republican presidential vote.

A Nunn victory would strengthen the Republican position in central Iowa and suggest that the party’s advantage has extended beyond the presidential ballot.

The result could have national consequences because both parties are competing for a narrow House majority.