ILO lowers employment generation forecast for 2025 to 53 million from 60 million projected earlier

The International Labour Organization (ILO), on Wednesday, revised down its global employment forecast for 2025 to 53 million jobs as against earlier estimates of estimated 60 million jobs created worldwide this year following a downward revision in economic growth.

“This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7% to 1.5% this year.” ILO said in its World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update released on Wednesday.

“The drop, which is the equivalent of around seven million fewer additional jobs, reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as GDP growth is expected at 2.8%, down from a previous projection of 3.2%,” it added.


In addition, the ILO estimates that close to 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand and are at risk.

“These jobs and the incomes they support are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions,” it said, adding 56 million of these jobs are concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region.

Canada and Mexico, however, have the highest share of jobs, 17.1%, that are exposed.

“We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated it would. Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labour markets worldwide,” ILO director-general Gilbert F. Houngbo said.

The report also highlights troubling trends in income distribution. “The labour income share, which is the proportion of GDP going to workers, fell globally to 52.4% in 2024 from 53% in 2014 with Africa and the Americas experiencing the largest declines,” it said.

As per the report, had this share remained unchanged, labour income globally would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, or $290 more per worker in constant purchasing power terms.

“This erosion in the share of global income going to workers puts upward pressure on inequality and highlights a disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation,” ILO cautioned.

Addressing the effects of new technologies on the world of work, the report said that nearly one in four workers may find their jobs transformed by generative AI.

“A larger share of jobs in medium-skilled occupations have some degree of exposure, but a greater percentage of jobs in high-skilled occupations have high exposure, whereby existing tasks could potentially be automated by AI,” it said.