Here's how Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif's ouster will impact India

Though Nawaz Sharif was a weak prime minister whose moves could be easily scuttled by the Pakistani army, there was hope that Pakistan would slowly emerge as a stable democracy. But the Panamagate verdict that disqualifies him and allows a six-month trial for all cases against him seems to belie that hope.

Political instability will further embolden the Pakistan army. The new army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa had already begun asserting himself against the political class as was evident from the case of alleged Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav who was sentenced to death by a secret military court in contravention of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations.

Though Sharif never challenged the army, there were indications that the political establishment in Pakistan was trying to assert itself.

Last year in October, a Pakistani media report about a closed-door meeting between the government and the army disclosed "an extraordinary verbal confrontation" between Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz's younger brother, and the ISI DG.

"In a blunt, orchestrated and unprecedented warning, the civilian government has informed the military leadership of a growing international isolation of Pakistan and sought consensus on several key actions by the state," a report in Dawn had stated.

The Panamagate verdict will increase dominance of military over the civilian government. For India, it may not mean much in the short term as the Pakistan government has never been free of military interference in its policy towards India.

Ever since the attack on the Indian Army base in Uri last year, India-Pakistan relations have been strained. The Kulbhushan Jadhav case worsened the ties. There was little chance of Sharif making any move to improve the ties with India independent of the military.

India's best bet is a demilitarised Pakistan which desists from sending terrorists into the Indian territory. In the longer term, military dominance in Pakistan is not positive for India. There was hope that over time Pakistan would elect a government which could stand up to military. With Sharif's exit, there is little chance of any strong leader emerging in foreseeable future.

Though Sharif's willingness to talk to India and his significant gestures such as addressing a Hindu gathering on the festival of Holi were derailed by army chief Bajwa by displaying unrelenting aggression against India on the LoC, Sharif's government tried to push the envelope vis-a-vis the military. The Dawn report was a major indicator of this. However, Sharif had eventually given in to the military pressure and had to remove two of his top officials in a tussle with the military over the leaks about the meeting to the media.

Though a change of government in Pakistan hardly impacts its India policy which is always dictated by the military, a free hand for military due to the political instability will increase tensions with India.

In one more year, Sharif's government would have completed its full term. This had kindled the hope that Pakistan could finally mature as a democracy. But his removal stamps out that hope.