Geopolitical tensions, climate finance and 1.5°C breach cloud COP31 negotiations

Antalya: The urgency to accelerate climate action, and countries grappling with geopolitical tensions and their fallout, serve as the backdrop for the 31st round of UN climate talks (COP31) that begins on Monday in the Mediterranean resort town of Antalya in Turkiye.

There are about 160 issues that will be negotiated over the next two weeks. These include the mitigation work programme dealing with emission reduction, the global goal on adaptation, the just transition work programme, and the review of the financial mechanism. The outcomes of the talks will be determined by the progress made by countries-finance, adaptation and loss and damage, transition to a low carbon pathway that is just, inclusive and fair, and how science informs the efforts to tackle climate change.

Also Read: Climate finance, trade likely to be on COP31 table


Two wars and an unresolved political crisis in the broader neighbourhood continue to exert pressure on national budgets, as governments prioritise defence expenditure, coping with the energy crisis and attendant economic impacts. Meanwhile, rising cost of living and protests in many parts of the world by citizens concerned about their future further complicate efforts to tackle climate change, at a time when scientists have determined that the world will breach the 1.5 degree Celsius temperature guardrail.

All this has made COP31 a critical moment in the global collective effort to tackle what many leaders have, in the past, described as the biggest challenge confronting humanity. Trust, the thread that makes collective action possible, is shrinking. Navigating this complex backdrop to get countries to step up with efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, to ensure that developing countries are provided adequate funds, particularly grants and concessional loans, technology and help with capacity building, are Turkiye and Australia.

An arrangement was forged to break the deadlock over which country would host the 2026 round of talks. Turkiye holds the COP31 presidency with Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change Murat Kurum serving as the COP31 president. Turkiye leads the action agenda, including the global call for 35% electrification by 2035. Australia will serve as the president of negotiations, working under the guidance of the COP31 presidency.

Also Read: Brazil offers road map to phase down fossil fuels, halt deforestation

Australian Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen will lead the formal negotiations. "COP31 will accelerate practical action and investment to keep global temperatures to safer limits and help build resilience to climate impacts. As lead negotiator, Australia will seek to bring consensus to global climate ambition, including accelerating electrification, unlocking investment, improving access to climate finance and advancing ocean action," said Bowen, who is the COP31 president of negotiations.

Turkiye and Australia have announced their intention to have a "cover decision", which is a presidency-led decision that is negotiated by countries and is essentially a political statement. Recent COP presidencies have used the cover letter to discuss issues that are not included in the official agenda. Bowen said the presidencies did not want to negotiate a lengthy political statement. What is included in the cover decision will be the subject of intense negotiations-with some countries pushing for the inclusion of the electrification goal announced by Turkiye and a definitive statement on the IPCC reports.