El Nino pushes Pacific to its hottest ever, and global temperatures show no sign of cooling

An intensifying El Nino has pushed sea surface temperatures in a key zone of the Pacific to an all-time high, another sign that the weather pattern is gaining exceptional strength and could keep global temperatures elevated well into 2027.

Sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region, the zone scientists track to monitor El Nino, touched 29.70 degrees Celsius in September, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service. The reading is higher than the peaks of the strong El Nino events of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, Copernicus said in a statement, according to an AFP report.

Also read: El Nino could rank among strongest since 1950, peak in December, last through February: UN body


The record comes even before the event's expected peak later this year, according to the AFP report. Global forecasters have been warning for months that this El Nino would likely become the strongest ever observed.

Not yet the strongest on record

Copernicus told AFP it cannot yet say that the current El Nino is the strongest ever recorded. The EU monitor noted that as climate change warms the oceans, recent events can look stronger than older ones, which complicates historical comparisons. It has adopted a new index that accounts for the warming of tropical oceans, and on that measure the current event is not yet stronger than past ones, it told AFP.

Even so, the September values point to an "already exceptionally strong El Nino", Copernicus told AFP.

Agencies also use different scales. Japan's weather agency said on Friday that El Nino conditions had reached their strongest intensity on record, with temperatures in the monitoring area 4 degrees Celsius above normal, according to AFP.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its Global Seasonal Climate Update on October 8 that El Nino will keep intensifying ahead of a forecast peak in December. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said its forecasts show a near-100 per cent likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027, and that it could be one of the strongest since at least 1950.

Oceans and air stay unusually hot

Global average sea surface temperature hit a record 21.05 degrees Celsius for September, topping the previous high of 20.92 degrees Celsius for the same month in 2023, Copernicus said, according to AFP. The world also had its second-hottest September on record, with surface air temperature averaging 16.27 degrees Celsius, 1.63 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900, the EU service said.

Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said in a statement that the world is in a new run of months above 1.5 degrees Celsius, and with a strong El Nino still intensifying it is likely to last into 2027. Crossing the Paris Agreement's long-term limit is "only a matter of time", he said, as quoted by AFP.

Nations agreed at the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris to keep warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius, AFP noted. The UN declared in September that the 1.5 degrees Celsius target would be missed in a matter of years, according to AFP. Experts have warned that this El Nino would likely push global temperatures to a new record in 2027, the agency reported.

What it means for India

El Nino is typically linked to weaker monsoon rains in India. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended with a 12.6 per cent rainfall deficit, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data. The country received 759.4 mm of rain against the long-period average of 868.6 mm, the weakest season since 2015, the IMD data shows. East and Northeast India were the worst hit, with a deficit of about 25.6 per cent.

The IMD had forecast below-normal rainfall, at 90 per cent of the long-period average, before the season began. It has also projected below-normal rainfall for October, when sowing of winter (rabi) crops begins.

Also read: Food industry warns of supply shock over Super El Nino

The Reserve Bank of India flagged El Nino as a potential threat to inflation in its April 8 policy announcement.

El Nino is the warming phase of a natural climate cycle that raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific.

It changes winds, pressure and rainfall patterns worldwide, raising the risk of drought and flooding and adding to man-made global warming. AFP noted that it typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.

(With inputs from AFP)