El Nino is expected 'to break records': top expert

Paris: The current El Nino weather phenomenon is expected to break records for its overall strength, a top expert said Tuesday, raising concerns about droughts, floods and other extremes linked to the event.


Forecast models are pointing to an "extreme" event, said Tim Stockdale, an El Nino expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), an intergovernmental organisation.


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Stockdale said this year's El Nino is unlike anything he had seen in more than three decades of tracking the phenomenon.
"I think it's absolutely true to say we've never had a forecast of an El Nino that was so strong and so consistent across (forecast) models," he said in a media briefing.

Stockdale said it would be "a very, very big surprise" if the event failed to be a record-breaker. "I would expect it to break records, but no guarantees," he said El Nino warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

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It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. Combined with human-induced climate change, the last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

The weather phenomenon can lead to droughts in some parts of the world and flooding in others.