El Nino could rank among strongest since 1950, peak in December, last through February: UN body

El Nino is set to intensify more this year before it reaches its peak in December, lasting through February, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday in its climate bulletin.

The bulletin also said that sea surface temperatures are likely to break records, as cited by Reuters.

Also Read: India faces weakest monsoon in nearly two decades as El Nino strengthens


"WMO forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that El Nino will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950," WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said in the report.

It said that the temperature of sea surfaces in the central and eastern tropical Pacific were expected to reach a record 3.7 degree Celsius above normal from October to December.

The regions are at the heart of the phenomenon.

"The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release," Saulo said in the report.

El Nino is the warm phase of the naturally occurring El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle, a climate pattern that influences weather around the world.

It is more than a weather phenomenon and can ripple through the global economy by disrupting crops, pushing up food prices and straining energy and commodity markets.

For India, where the monsoon plays a crucial role in agriculture and rural demand, a prolonged or severe El Nino spreads beyond the fields, affecting household spending, business costs and overall economic growth.

Also Read: World Bank raises India FY27 growth forecast to 7.1%, flags oil, El Niño risks

The last El Nino added to the heat that made 2023 the second-hottest year on record, before 2024 broke the record with global temperatures about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

Although El Nino typically peaks between November and February, its strongest temperature effects often show up later.

The current episode is already taking a toll in some parts of the world, with drought in Central America killing crops and animals.