Economists see odds of US recession at 50% or less

A strong majority of business economists now say the odds of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50% or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics survey.

Some 71% of respondents reported such an outlook in results of the poll, published Monday. That marks a sharp turnaround from NABE's previous survey in April, which showed an almost even split between those forecasting a downturn and those who were not.


More than one in four respondents in the July survey put the chance of a recession in the next year at 25% or less.

Ongoing strength in the labour market and a pullback in key consumer price metrics have helped fuel the shift in sentiment. While economists have in recent months repeatedly altered their forecasts for when a potential recession may begin, the NABE survey results suggest many may now be changing their minds altogether on the inevitability of one.

A greater share of survey respondents, who are employed at firms across a number of industries, reported improved profit margins at their companies, and an increased share also said they were passing some or all of recent cost increases on to consumers.

Inflation-related metrics were mixed. While a majority of respondents reported that wages were unchanged at their companies in the second quarter, 49% reported rising prices in that period up from 40% in the April poll. A greater share of panelists also expect prices to rise in the next three months.

The survey reflects responses from 52 NABE members, collected between June 30 and July 12.