Could Israel’s Arab parties hold the key to deciding who becomes the next prime minister as Netanyahu faces an election deadlock and rival blocs struggle to secure a governing majority?

The political parties among Israel's Arab citizens may decide the identity of the next prime minister in the country after the recent elections, which left the two main political camps short of the majority required to govern the country. They will open a window for opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to contest against Benjamin Netanyahu, although disputes regarding cooperation among them may prevent it from turning into a governing coalition.

As per CNN's election results, Netanyahu’s right-wing camp is expected to capture 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition party under Eisenkot is expected to capture 48. The two Arab parties, namely Ra'am and Joint List, are expected to capture 19 seats.

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At least 61 legislators need to support a government to ensure its majority. This mathematics puts Arab political leaders in a particularly powerful position, even though many well-known Jewish members of the opposition have refused to entertain the possibility of getting their backing.

According to CNN news reports, Arab political leader Ahmad Tibi has proposed to back an opposition government into power. What will be of importance here is whether Eisenkot and his followers will accept the backing, considering the political risks and ideological differences that might emerge thereafter.

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The answer to this will decide whether Netanyahu will continue to serve as caretaker prime minister, a new government is formed, or Israel goes for fresh elections.

Arab parties gain unprecedented influence after election

About the election, the representatives of Israeli Arabs may play a crucial role in the formation of the new government. CNN notes that there is an expectation for Arab parties to win 19 seats in the Knesset, owing to the good results of Palestinian citizens of Israel, comprising about one-fifth of the Israeli population.

For the representatives of Arab politics, the election provides a chance to affect national policies after a long period of tensions with Netanyahu’s administration. In addition, their agenda includes such items as crime in the Arab community and discriminatory policies.

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According to the news of CNN from the Arab majority city of Tayibe, it was noted that the outcome of the election was very important. Ahmad Tibi, the leader of the Joint List party, expressed readiness to support the minority government of the opposition to change the current leadership.

Such a scenario would not automatically call for the participation of Arab political parties within the government. Rather, the Arab parties could choose to lend their support to a government that is not part of the official coalition but would need their vote to survive.

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This distinction could play a role in negotiations. An Arab-backed minority government could give Eisenkot the means to circumvent the problem of integrating Arab political parties into his coalition.

Nevertheless, this strategy will still demand the cooperation of opposition parties led by leaders who oppose the inclusion of Arab political parties in their government coalition.

Why Netanyahu’s rivals are divided over Arab support

Eisenkot’s opposition bloc is faced with a hard decision since cooperating with Arab political parties will offer him a path to a parliamentary majority, but the risk of such an alliance is that it can alienate his voters and other political partners.

According to CNN, some of the opposition leaders, such as former prime minister Naftali Bennett and former defence minister Avigdor Liberman, have declined a government that relies on Arab parties, whether inside the coalition or outside.

Eisenkot himself refuses to be part of any government involving Netanyahu, thus offering him few options should he choose to live up to his word and form a government.

A possible solution to the problem may be negotiation for a minority government supported by the Arab legislators; however, such a coalition will entail making concessions. Another possible solution is for the political parties to pursue a unity government.

The precedent is important. As reported by CNN, Ra’am was part of an eight-party coalition that brought down Netanyahu in 2021. This government had a lifespan of just over a year, thus highlighting the possibility as well as the challenges involved in Jewish-Arab cooperation.

The current situation is more complicated, since the opposition bloc includes parties with widely divergent political stances. While the leaders may all be in agreement about getting Netanyahu out of office, they can differ on what kind of policies the next government should adopt.

Netanyahu himself has an interest in discouraging any kind of cooperation between Eisenkot's camp and the Arab parties. According to the report by CNN, such a strategy could be key to staying in power.

What happens if the Arab parties cannot break the deadlock?

The next move will be based on consultations under the presidency of Isaac Herzog, who needs to figure out which politician can possibly form a government.

As stated by CNN, the choice will be especially important since neither of the two main political blocs has been able to get a majority on its own. The Arab political parties can offer the candidacy of Eisenkot, making it likely that the politician will become the one to get the right to form a government.

In case the mandate is given to Eisenkot, he will need to make an agreement with the current coalition members as well as choose whether he wants to get some additional votes from Ra'am and the Joint List to be able to fight with Netanyahu.

In case of failure, the mandate will go to another politician, while Netanyahu will have a chance to attract opposition representatives and form a new coalition. In case of failure, new elections will be inevitable, while Netanyahu will keep his role as caretaker prime minister until then.

According to CNN, the negotiations might go on for weeks and even months. Therefore, the election outcome is just the first step towards a bigger political battle.

The task of the Israeli Arab parties is to transform their election achievements into real political influence. Their 19 seats can affect the formation of the new government, but only if they are ready to work together with other parties.

As far as Eisenkot is concerned, his choice is equally important. Accepting the support of the Arabs may help him reach the goal, and rejecting it may ensure Netanyahu stays in office for longer.

Thus, there has appeared an amazing situation. Some parties, which represent a minority group which used to be powerless in influencing the politics of the country, may play a role in deciding who the next leader of Israel is.

The success will be determined not by the number of seats they hold, but rather by the readiness of the rivals to create a political alliance.