COP31: Limiting 1.5°C overshoot, speeding up electrification emerge as top priorities

Antalya: Limiting the period when global temperature overshoots the 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels threshold and accelerating electrification are emerging as key priorities at COP31, with the Turkiye-Australia leadership keen to see these issues reflected in the conference's negotiated cover decision.

"Even temporarily overshooting the 1.5C will cause irreversible damage. We cannot abandon the effort to minimise overshoot," said Murat Kurum, president of COP31 and Turkiye's environment and climate change minister. The Turkiye-Australia leadership is also keen that the cover decision and the outcome of COP31 demonstrate that multilateralism is not only alive but also delivering.

"It is up to this meeting to show that, collectively and by consensus, countries can rise to the occasion," COP president of negotiations Chris Bowen said. He noted that the climate conference is taking place at "a moment of consequence." Despite differences in approaches on dealing with the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5C guardrail and on joining in the Electrification Pledge under the COP31 Action Agenda, countries at the conference are committed to multilateralism.


However, reflecting these key ideas in the political decision will be contentious. It remains to be seen in what shape and form these issues are reflected in the final negotiated cover decision. The cover decision is a negotiated presidency-led text and can include issues, as it has done in the past, that are not part of the formal agenda.

Australia, as COP31 president of negotiations, will oversee the drafting and negotiation of the text, while Turkiye, as host-country president, will be responsible for steering it towards adoption by all parties. Consultations on the cover decision began on Tuesday evening, with the presidency calling for inputs and views from countries and negotiating groups.

In the first round of the exercise, countries and negotiating groups have been asked to share their view on three broad questions. They have been asked to identify recent progress and developments that the decision could recognise as an effort to strengthen confidence in collective climate efforts. The second deals with impact, challenges and opportunities before countries and the world. The final question calls on respondents to identify ways in which countries can work together to accelerate implementation by advancing concrete solutions, means of implementation and international cooperation.

The Turkiye-Australia team plans to produce an elements text that collates all these suggestions. A draft decision text will likely be present early next week. The issues that countries raised at Tuesday's meeting include global warming and measures required to limit the quantum and period of the overshoot to the minimum. Some countries stressed on deep emissions reductions, while some called for addressing the impacts through adaptation. Others stressed on addressing loss and damage.

Discussions touched on atmospheric carbon removal being a critical element of addressing the overshoot. Finance, particularly tripling of adaptation finance, was another key issue raised by countries.