CIA assessed Venezuela’s post-Maduro future ahead of U.S. operation

A recent classified CIA intelligence analysis examined what would happen in Venezuela if Nicolas Maduro was no longer president, looking at the likely near-term succession scenarios, according to a person familiar with the document.

The CIA analysis was not focused on the forcible removal of Maduro by the U.S. military, but rather on examining what would happen if he left office in any of several possibilities: through a negotiated agreement, because of the American pressure campaign or by force.

The assessment was requested by senior policymakers as President Donald Trump contemplated whether to authorize the military operation that broke into a fortified Venezuelan military base and captured Maduro, according to the person.


The document aided Trump's decision-making, according to people briefed on the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about a highly classified document and internal administration deliberations.

Based on the work of the intelligence community and other assessments, Trump and others concluded that Delcy Rodriguez, the vice president, was the best-positioned short-term successor, according to the briefed people.

While many Venezuelans and some members of Congress had seen a possible future leader in Maria Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and Venezuelan opposition leader, administration officials drew on intelligence analysis and other assessments that made them skeptical that she had a realistic plan to take over after Maduro was forced out, according to the briefed officials.

Before Trump authorized the operation to remove Maduro, some administration officials hoped that U.S. campaign of boat strikes and oil seizures would lead to him leaving voluntarily. Other officials were seeking to negotiate with Maduro to have him give up power.

The classified CIA assessment was reported earlier Monday by The Wall Street Journal.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.