China’s Pacific push gets a boost as key leaders skip island forum

China’s growing influence in the Pacific is getting an unexpected boost as at least five Pacific island leaders stay away from an annual regional summit, complicating efforts to project unity at a forum where tensions over Taiwan are taking centre stage.

The prime ministers of Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa and the Solomon Islands, along with the president of Kiribati, are absent from the Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ talks that began on Monday in Palau. Most are expected to be represented by ministers or senior officials.

Also Read: Great power rivalry threatens to overshadow a summit of some of the world's smallest island nations


The absences come at a particularly sensitive time for the region, where Beijing and Washington are competing for influence and China has steadily expanded its footprint while reducing the number of Pacific island nations that maintain formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

For Beijing, the fragmented turnout offers a favourable backdrop as it pushes back against Taiwan’s participation in the forum and seeks to deepen its engagement with Pacific island states.

Only three Pacific countries in the forum — Palau, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands — now maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has gradually persuaded several countries to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.

China has also challenged Taiwan’s presence at the Palau gathering, saying it had "no qualifications" to participate in the forum. Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung has been invited to meetings and side events being held alongside the summit, although Taiwan is not a formal dialogue partner and instead participates as a development partner.

Beijing has stepped up pressure on Palau ahead of the meeting. Last month, China issued a travel advisory declaring the Pacific island nation "unsafe" for tourists.

The United States pushed back, with its embassy in Palau saying it "opposes any attempts by China to weaponize tourism to coerce Palau."

The forum, being hosted by Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. in the capital Koror through September 4, has brought dialogue partners including the US, China, Japan and Singapore back into the fold after they were excluded from last year's gathering in Honiara.

Also Read: Taiwan accuses China of silencing political dissent

US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau and China's Special Envoy for Pacific Island Countries Affairs Qian Bo are among the representatives expected to attend.

A divided Pacific

The absence of several heads of government is not necessarily a direct victory for Beijing, but it risks weakening the forum's ability to present a united regional position at a time when China-Taiwan tensions are increasingly shaping Pacific diplomacy.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale, who was due to attend, left Palau to return home for a no-confidence motion.

Wale was elected prime minister in May, replacing a government that had significantly strengthened ties with Beijing and signed a security pact with China that had raised concerns in the US and among its allies.

Kiribati said President Taneti Maamau could not travel because parliament was sitting and flights were limited.

The other absences were also attributed to domestic or scheduling considerations, rather than a coordinated decision to stay away from the forum.

Still, the reduced presence of leaders comes as Pacific nations grapple with competing demands from major powers and differences over how the region should respond to security challenges.

A Pacific Island foreign ministers' meeting in Suva earlier this month failed to agree on a collective response to a Chinese missile test in the Pacific.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters said it remained unclear whether leaders would be able to agree on a common position in Palau, particularly given the time that had passed since the test.

The forum's agenda, however, extends well beyond geopolitics.

Palau has placed economic development and regional integration at the heart of the gathering, held under the theme "B.E.L.A.U. — Building Economies: Life. Action. Unity."

Opening a meeting of the Smaller Island States, the first gathering of leaders during the week, Whipps said the theme reflected the need to turn regional cooperation into tangible benefits.

"The theme reflects a simple but important conviction: that building stronger economies is not an end in itself," Whipps said.

"It must elevate the livelihoods of our people, create tangible and sustainable opportunities for our economies, and unite us in our ongoing efforts to deepen regionalism through integration."

New Zealand's Peters, meanwhile, urged the forum to focus on outcomes rather than discussions.

"We want more doing, less hui," Peters told reporters on Sunday, using the Maori word for meetings.

Energy security is expected to be among the immediate priorities, with Peters saying disruptions to oil supplies were one of the region's most pressing concerns. He also foreshadowed an announcement on relief measures that could come within days.

But beneath the economic agenda lies a broader contest for influence.

China has spent years strengthening political, economic and security ties across the Pacific, while the US and its allies have sought to counter Beijing's growing presence. The diplomatic battle over Taiwan has become one of the clearest manifestations of that rivalry.

With several leaders absent, Taiwan under pressure and disagreements persisting over regional security, Beijing has found itself with a potentially advantageous setting: a Pacific forum that is meant to showcase unity instead highlighting just how difficult it is for the region to speak with one voice.