Australian weather conditions may be leading to El Nino

NEW DELHI: The Australian Meteorological Department says that there is triple the normal chance of El Niño in 2015.

Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the bureau's ENSO tracker is at alert status. This indicates that there is triple the normal chance of El Niño in 2015,” says the weather office.

As per it, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators in the tropical Pacific are approaching El Niño levels.”Sea surface temperatures now exceed El Niño thresholds and trade winds have remained weaker than average for several weeks. This suggests some coupling between the ocean and atmosphere may be occurring. If these patterns persist or strengthen, El Niño will become established,” it says in it fortnightly release.

The met department says that all international climate models surveyed by them indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the southern hemisphere spring.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter(June-August) and spring rainfall( September- November)over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral and model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD for the coming months. This phenomenon, wherein the East Indian Oceans (waters near Indonesia) warms or cools, affects the monsoon.”

From May to November, the IOD can impact Australian climate. However, the Indian Ocean remains much warmer than average, which is currently influencing the Australian rainfall outlook, with an increased chance of above-average rainfall in the near term,” says the met department.