Asia going to sweat a lot more in coming weeks amid Middle East crisis

North Asia needs to brace for above-normal temperature in the weeks ahead, triggering increased demand for energy amid the Persian Gulf crisis due to the US-Iran conflict and already high imports.

“Cooling demand (in Japan) and heat wave conditions are expected to ease this weekend,” Bloomberg cited Francois Geffroy, consultant meteorologist at MetraWeather. “But maximum temperatures will be back up to the 90th percentile by the end of the week and into the first week of August.”

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Asia heatwave to keep temperatures above normal

Japan is grappling with extreme heat, with the country introducing a new meteorological term this year, "kokushobi", or "cruelly hot day", to describe temperatures above 40C and warn people about the growing risk of heatstroke. On Tuesday, three cities in central Japan crossed that threshold, while heatstroke alerts were issued across almost the entire country, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Temperatures in many regions of Japan where near 40 degree Celsius this week. Widespread unseasonal heat may return in the middle of next week after a brief reprieve over the weekend due to cold front. Japan's national weather agency has warned of very high temperatures nationwide from Wednesday.

Asia is already facing a fresh inflation risk alongside higher energy prices, as soaring temperatures and drier weather across countries from India to New Zealand threaten food production and push up food costs.


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Asia heatwave fuels cooling demand as Middle East tensions raise LNG concerns

The extreme heat is expected to push up electricity consumption further and deplete natural gas inventories, potentially forcing Japan to secure additional LNG cargoes. Any increase in purchases could come at an expensive time, with conflict in the Middle East already driving LNG import costs close to their highest levels in recent years.

Hot weather is expected to spread across large parts of northern and northeastern China as a high-pressure system settles over the region, according to Paul Markert, a meteorologist at Vaisala. Temperatures in Beijing could reach 36.9C next Thursday and Friday, about 5.5C above the seasonal average, while Shanghai is forecast to see highs in the mid-30s Celsius.

The unusually warm conditions are then expected to move into South Korea the following week, with average temperatures in Seoul forecast to be 3C to 3.5C higher than normal.

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Heatwave in Asia and the big concerns

From China and Japan to South Korea and parts of Southeast Asia, prolonged heatwaves are driving electricity demand to record levels as households and businesses crank up air conditioners. The surge in cooling demand is increasing consumption of liquefied natural gas (LNG), much of which comes from the Middle East, just as tensions in the region have heightened concerns over supply disruptions and volatile energy prices. For fuel-importing Asian economies, the combination of extreme heat and geopolitical uncertainty is raising the risk of higher power costs and tighter energy supplies during the peak summer season.

A tropical storm could also approach Japan in early August, according to forecasts. While the rain and strong winds associated with such systems can help cool temperatures, they can also pull in hot and humid air, leading to warmer nights and higher humidity, said James Caron, director of meteorological operations for North America and Asia at Atmospheric G2.

“Even temporary cooler periods may be followed by a rapid rebound in heat and electricity demand,” he said.