After pulling out of second debate, Trump’s chance to win fades with little time to recover

While the lesson of the 2016 campaign was never to count out Donald Trump, his path to re-election is narrowing dramatically as Democrat Joe Biden's lead continues to grow and voters sour on the president's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump now trails Biden by an average of 9.7 percentage points nationally, and by about 5 to 7 points in key battleground states, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polling. With 25 days left, it's not clear how Trump can make up lost ground.

The challenge got even harder Thursday when Trump rejected the idea of a virtual debate with Biden next week, erasing one of his few remaining opportunities to change the trajectory of the race.


“I don't see how Donald Trump catches Joe Biden without having two debates,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Bloomberg Television on Thursday. “Without that debate, I can't do the math to take him to where he needs to be if he expects to win this election.”

Democrats, still haunted by Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, aren't yet celebrating. Clinton enjoyed a 5.3-point lead against Trump, on average, the same number of days before the election four years ago. But there are crucial differences this time, including a much higher favorability rating for Biden than Clinton enjoyed and Biden's competitiveness in several states Trump carried in 2016, which also could shrink the president's possible paths to re-election.