81 US aircraft lost in Iran war: Why the MQ-9 Reaper losses could be a bigger warning for America than the billions spent replacing them

Almost 10 months since the outbreak of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, and the Congressional Research Service claims that the United States have lost or damaged 81 military aircraft in the war. The losses include manned aircraft, helicopters, and UAVs, with more than half of the losses being MQ-9 Reapers. CNN estimates the losses, in terms of replacement or repair, at $1.9 billion and $3.3 billion, citing the Congressional Budget Office.

However, some aspects may turn out to be more significant than the issue of the cost itself.

The high attrition rate of the MQ-9 Reaper drone has become a matter of concern due to its increasing value as an asset for American military operations in the Middle East region. CNN claims that the drone served for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, close air support, and combat search-and-rescue operations.


It is quite difficult for the Pentagon to choose between keeping and replacing the aircraft with the same type or changing the policy concerning the use of drones in the war.

MQ-9 Reaper losses dominate America's aircraft toll

CNN reported that 45 MQ-9 Reapers have been lost in the Middle East this year, citing a September assessment from the Atlantic Council.

This figure reflects a very high attrition rate for an aircraft that has been used extensively by US forces in military campaigns in the region.

The MQ-9 was built with the capacity to spend extended times in the air and thus enable US forces to watch over large territories and respond to emerging targets. Its ability to carry weapons also gives commanders an option to move from intelligence gathering to strikes when required.

CNN noted that the Reaper has faced heavy use not only during the Iran conflict but also during earlier US operations involving the Houthis in Yemen, an Iranian-backed group.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach previously called the MQ-9 the military's “most valuable player” in the Iran war, according to a report cited by CNN.

That description makes the losses particularly noteworthy. The issue is not simply the number of aircraft destroyed. Every lost Reaper can reduce the number of available platforms for persistent surveillance and other missions at a time when US forces are already operating across several theatres.

F-35 and E-3 losses could create bigger problems

The Reaper accounts for the largest share of the losses, but CNN reported that the CRS tally also includes some of America's most sophisticated and strategically important aircraft.

One of the aircraft is the F-35A fighter, which is one of the most advanced aircraft in the Pentagon. The other aircraft in the list is the E-3 Sentry, the four-engine plane equipped with a distinctive radar dome, used for aerial surveillance, targeting and airspace control.

The loss of the E-3 is very serious since it is a unique and limited aircraft. According to CNN, CRS warned Congress that the loss of ageing and highly valued aeroplanes like E-3 could prove to be fatal somewhere else.

The damage does not necessarily mean every aircraft counted by CRS has been permanently removed from service. CNN reported that eight F-15 Strike Eagle fighters suffered light damage during an Iranian attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan in September and could potentially return to service.

That distinction could materially change the eventual replacement bill.

Congress wants clearer answers from the Pentagon

The CRS assessment also raises questions about how much information Congress has received about the aircraft losses.

CNN reported that researchers compiled the figures using Defense Department statements, Pentagon inspector general findings, US Central Command information and news reports.

The report says Pentagon disclosures about losses in the Iran war have often been limited. It is also worth noting that, according to CNN, another report from the Pentagon's inspector general that was released in September and covered activities from February 28 to June 30, used the earlier CRS reports for some of the aircraft loss statistics.

In order to solve this issue for the members of Congress, it is important to know how many aircraft have been destroyed, how many of them can be repaired, and what platforms require urgent replacement.

CNN reported that CRS also questioned whether the US defence industry has enough capacity to replace the losses while meeting existing military orders and foreign sales commitments.

That could become particularly important for sophisticated aircraft that require years of planning and production.

The drone losses point to a wider US military dilemma

The aircraft replacement bill is substantial, but CNN reported that it represents only a fraction of the broader cost of the Iran war.

Sources cited by CNN have estimated that the conflict has already cost the United States at least $45 billion. That estimate does not include all damage to American military infrastructure across the region.

The MQ-9 figures, however, raise a different issue from the overall price tag.

As pointed out by CNN, according to an analysis carried out by the Atlantic Council, the USAF has lost roughly 35 per cent of its MQ-9 fleet since 2004. With the loss of 45 MQ-9s in the Middle East alone this year, it is necessary to consider whether the Reaper drone would be appropriate for use in the current environment.

Replacing every lost drone may not solve that underlying problem.

The Pentagon could instead face pressure to develop or purchase unmanned aircraft that are harder to detect and intercept, while finding new ways to protect the surveillance capabilities currently provided by the MQ-9.

But, as CNN pointed out regarding the assessment by the CRS, there is also an additional problem associated with the losses in aircraft in the Middle East region – these losses may also impact US military readiness outside the region because the aircraft that are specialised are becoming scarce.

And this is what the figure of 81 aircraft means.

For the Pentagon and Congress, the immediate question is how to repair or replace the aircraft damaged in the Iran war. The longer-term question is whether the losses have exposed weaknesses in the way the United States conducts air operations against increasingly capable opponents.

The $1.9 billion to $3.3 billion aircraft bill may eventually be paid through additional defence spending. The harder problem could be deciding what America should buy next — and whether the MQ-9 Reaper should remain at the centre of its strategy.