Your Thanksgiving and Christmas flight could still stay expensive long after jet fuel prices come down

A drop in fuel costs would normally sound like good news for travelers. Airlines would spend less on operating flights. Passengers might expect cheaper tickets to follow. Airline pricing rarely moves so quickly.

Major U.S. carriers and industry analysts say fares could remain high even if jet fuel prices begin falling. Airlines are still dealing with earlier cost increases. Fewer available flights may also keep pressure on ticket prices, as per a report by ABC News.

Jet Fuel Prices Move Faster Than Airfares

Jet fuel prices have swung sharply since the Iran war began. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index reached $4.88 per gallon in early April. It dropped to $2.70 in June. Airfares remained elevated during the decline.


The average domestic fare was $405 during the final quarter of 2025. It increased to $428 in the first quarter of 2026. The figure then reached $436 between April and June, according to Bureau of Transportation Statistics data cited by The Associated Press.

Optional charges are not included in those figures. Checked baggage or seat-selection fees can push the final cost even higher.

Why Lower Fuel Costs Do Not Reach Travelers Quickly

Airlines plan schedules months ahead. Tickets may go on sale even earlier.

A carrier cannot increase the price of a seat after someone has purchased it. When fuel suddenly becomes more expensive, airlines must recover the additional expense from seats sold later. Higher fees may also help cover the gap.

Falling fuel costs create a similar delay. Airlines may continue charging more while recovering money lost during earlier spikes.

Volatility is the bigger concern. Stable jet fuel prices make planning easier. United Airlines finance chief Mike Leskinen summed up the problem by saying, “I just need it to stabilize.”

Flight Cuts Could Keep Ticket Prices High

Expensive fuel has already pushed airlines to review less-profitable routes. United removed some December flights. American Airlines also indicated that its growth could slow in 2027.

Fewer flights mean fewer seats for travelers. Strong demand can then keep fares high, even if the airline begins paying less for fuel.

American has estimated that every one-cent increase in the per-gallon fuel price adds nearly $10 million to its quarterly fuel bill. Recent increases could add around $1 billion to its fourth-quarter costs, its finance chief said.

Holiday Flights Are Already Expensive

Travelers searching for holiday flights are seeing little relief. Hopper estimated that a domestic Thanksgiving round trip averaged $402. Christmas travel averaged $452. The prices were 31% and 23% higher than a year earlier, respectively.

Waiting for jet fuel prices to fall may not produce a bargain. A sustained decline would need to continue long enough for airlines to rebuild schedules and adjust fares.

FAQs

Why are jet fuel prices affecting airfares?

Fuel represents a major airline expense. IATA expects it to account for nearly one-third of operating costs in 2026.

Will flights become cheaper if oil prices fall?

Not immediately. Airlines need time to adjust schedules and recover earlier costs.