With four weeks to go, who is going to win the U.S. elections? Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, it's a knife-edge

US elections are just around the corner. The 2024 polls indicate that the presidential contest is still very close and well within the margin of error, with four weeks until Election Day.

Recent nationwide surveys from NPR, PBS, and Marist have indicated that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by a mere margin of 2 points among likely voters, or 50% to 48%, within the poll's margin of error, plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

The polls in the battleground states that will ultimately determine the outcome of the presidential contest also support this theory. In the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Harris and Trump are virtually tied, with maybe a slight Trump bias.


Although Harris has a marginally bigger advantage in the Great Lakes states of Wisconsin and Michigan, those advantages are easily explained by possible polling error. Furthermore, it looks like a jump ball given the most direct routes to 270 electoral votes for both Trump and Harris, which include recent polling in crucial Pennsylvania.

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It's becoming absurd to expect political polls to be precise given their margins of error, historically low voter response rates, and, yes, past polling failures. However, what the public polling tells us is whether or not a race is close.

This race is still very close, according to surveys conducted nationally and in every state. These surveys even use different weighting schemes and make different assumptions about the electorate in 2024.

The trend of a race can also be ascertained with the use of polls. This race is fundamentally different from the one that existed prior to President Joe Biden withdrawing his endorsement of Harris and running for reelection.

Polls are a useful tool for gauging a politician's popularity. At the moment, most surveys show Harris with higher favourable ratings than Trump, following a significant spike in her numbers when she announced her candidacy for president this summer. When Biden was running, that wasn't the case.

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At the same time, polls cannot predict a presidential contest win; the 2024 race will be determined by turnout, news events, third-party vote breakdowns, and crucial battleground states, with margins too small for unambiguous clarity.

FAQs

Who is leading the US presidential contest in 2024?
According to polls, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially tied in this contest. Certain polls favour Trump, while others give Harris a slim edge.

What elements will influence the US presidential election of 2024?
Battleground states, undecided voters, and voter turnout will determine the outcome of the election. The result is still very tentative.