Winter Snowfall Forecast 2025-26: When and which areas in the U.S. will witness the first snow?

With autumn drawing to a close, anticipation for the first snowfall of the 2025-26 winter season is building across the United States. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their latest winter snowfall forecast, predicting an early onset of snow for parts of the West and Midwest, while much of the South is expected to stay relatively dry.

According to early projections, the first measurable snowfall could arrive as soon as late September in the Northern Rockies, gradually extending eastward through October and November. States such as Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado are expected to see early snow on mountain peaks, while the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast could receive their first accumulation by late October or early November.

Regions Likely to See the First Snow

Based on data from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the 2025-26 winter snowfall forecast suggests the following timeline for the first flakes across major regions:

Region	Expected First Snowfall
Northern Rockies	September – early October
Pacific Northwest	Late October
Upper Midwest & Great Lakes	Late October – November
New England & Mid-Atlantic	November – December
Southern States	Late December – January
Deep South & Florida	Rare snowfall

Cities such as Buffalo (New York), Minneapolis (Minnesota), Bismarck (North Dakota), and Anchorage (Alaska) top the list of the snowiest regions expected to see the first substantial snow this season.

NOAA’s 2025-26 Winter Outlook: What to Expect

NOAA’s latest outlook, covering December 2025 through February 2026, predicts that the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Lakes will likely experience above-average precipitation, increasing the probability of frequent snow events.

Meanwhile, the southern half of the U.S., including Texas, the Southeast, and coastal Mid-Atlantic, may experience drier-than-usual conditions, with fewer snow events.

Forecasters emphasize that while the seasonal outlook gives a broad picture of the months ahead, actual snowfall will depend on short-term storm systems that develop through winter.

Experts warn that several strong storm systems may move across the Central and Eastern U.S., possibly intensifying into nor’easters — bringing heavy snow, gusty winds, and dangerous travel conditions to the Northeast.

Colder Temperatures, Stronger Storms

Meteorologists believe that the 2025-26 winter will likely be colder and snowier than the last few years, with a strong chance of early winter storms striking the Midwest and Northeast by late November.

NOAA notes that climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural variation of sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will play a key role in shaping the season. If ENSO remains neutral or shifts toward a La Niña pattern, colder air could flow deeper into the continental U.S., triggering more intense snowfalls in northern regions.

According to NOAA meteorologist David Novak, “While we expect temperature fluctuations through the season, colder-than-average conditions will dominate much of the Midwest and Northern states, with increased storm activity in December and January.”

Travel Advisory and Safety Precautions

The first snowfall is expected to bring both excitement and challenges. The National Weather Service has urged residents, especially in northern and mountainous regions, to prepare for icy roads, flight delays, and visibility issues during early storms.

Drivers are advised to check vehicle antifreeze levels, carry winter emergency kits, and keep updated with local advisories. “Even light snow can quickly reduce traction and visibility, particularly during morning commutes,” the NWS said in a statement.

Long-Term Trends Show a Changing Winter Pattern

According to long-term data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and NOAA, winters across the U.S. have warmed by about 3°F since the early 1900s, even as some regions experience heavier snow events due to intensified storms.

The winter of 2023-24 was recorded as the warmest in 130 years, but meteorologists caution that this trend does not rule out extreme snow events — especially in localized areas influenced by lake-effect and mountain weather systems.

FAQs

When will the first snowfall of 2025-26 occur in the U.S.?

The first measurable snow is expected in the Northern Rockies in late September or early October, spreading eastward to the Great Lakes and Northeast by November.

Which regions are expected to get the heaviest snow this winter?

The Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northern Rockies are forecast to receive above-average snowfall, with Buffalo, Minneapolis, and Anchorage among the snowiest cities.