Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 collide with Earth in 2032? What you need to know

A recently discovered asteroid has prompted the activation of a global network of groups tasked with monitoring planetary events that could pose a threat to Earth's existence. However, it would be an exaggeration to suggest that the space rock in question threatens a climatic catastrophe for the future of civilisation as we know it.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has earned a spot at Level 3 on the graded Torino Impact Scale, which is primarily designed to facilitate public communication by the asteroid impact hazard monitoring community.

Impact likely in late 2032

Ranging from 0 to 10, the scale assesses the likelihood and potential consequences of an asteroid's impact with Earth.


According to IFLScience, experts believe there is a 1.2 per cent chance that Asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with Earth towards the end of 2032.

The asteroid was discovered with the help of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope, based in Río Hurtado, Chile, on 27 December last year, IFLScience reported.

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What about the destruction?

The website, citing scientists, stated that Asteroid 2024 YR4 is unlikely to cause continent-wide destruction, let alone a civilisation-ending event, even if it does impact Earth. But it certainly meets the two criteria that activate the NASA-chaired International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the European Space Agency-chaired Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).

These qualifying characteristics are the size of Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is likely to be larger than 50 metres, and the higher-than-one-per-cent chance that it might collide with Earth within the next 50 years.

Worth monitoring

Tamara Davis, Professor of Astrophysics, said in a statement cited by IFLScience that the asteroid is too small to pose a major threat, and “there’s a 99% chance it will miss us.” However, Davis added that it was still worth monitoring, as it could cause some local damage if it were to hit. Once astronomers observe it for several months, they will have detailed information about its trajectory and be able to provide a more confident estimate of how safe we are, Davis further explained.

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The asteroid is currently said to be on a course that is moving away from the Earth.

FAQS

1. What is the likelihood of Asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth?
Experts believe there is a 1.2 per cent chance that Asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with Earth towards the end of 2032.

2. Could Asteroid 2024 YR4 cause widespread destruction?
No, the asteroid is unlikely to cause continent-wide destruction or a civilisation-ending event, even if it does impact Earth.