Why oil and gas prices are rising today, April 29: Brent crude surges past $114 — here’s what rising oil prices mean for gas prices, inflation, and the Fed rate decision today

US oil price today April 29: Brent crude crosses $114, WTI jumps: The world woke up Wednesday to oil prices that hadn't been seen in over a month. Brent crude surged past $114 per barrel, and WTI crossed $103 — not because of a routine market swing, but because the global energy order is being stress-tested in real time. Oil prices rising this sharply, this fast, is the kind of signal that echoes far beyond the trading floor. It ripples into your gas bill, your grocery run, your inflation rate, and the decisions central banks will now be forced to make.

As of 9 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, April 29, Brent crude sat at $113.99 per barrel — up $4.03 from Tuesday and a staggering $50 higher than this time last year. That 78.49% year-over-year increase is not an anomaly. It is a verdict on how fragile the global energy system has become. What is driving this surge is a convergence of three forces: a U.S. naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz, stalled nuclear negotiations with Iran, and oil futures markets finally catching up to a physical supply disruption that has been building for weeks.

US oil price today April 29: Brent crude crosses $114, WTI jumps — why oil prices are rising now

The current spike in oil prices is not driven by a single event. It is a layered reaction. Supply risk, geopolitical strategy, and market psychology are all converging at once.


The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy corridor, and right now it is functionally closed to Iranian oil exports. Roughly 20% of the world's traded oil moves through this narrow passage between Iran and Oman. When it is disrupted — even partially — the shockwaves travel to every refinery, every gas station, every central bank that prices in inflation expectations.

U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade, positioning forces outside the strait in the Gulf of Oman to choke off Iranian revenues. The Wall Street Journal broke that story earlier this week. Since then, oil futures markets have been in a state of catch-up, finally pricing in a physical supply disruption that tanker operators and commodity traders had already been living with.

Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Analyst for Commodities at SEB Bank, put it bluntly: "Bets for when the SoH will reopen keep sliding into the future." He added that if the strait does not reopen meaningfully before June or July, the world could face a genuine energy crisis, one where global consumption must be forcibly reduced to match available supply. That is not a projection to dismiss.

How Stalled U.S.-Iran Negotiations Are Keeping Oil Prices Elevated

Diplomacy, or the absence of it, is now one of the most powerful forces in commodity markets. The U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled, and that stall is not neutral. Every day without a deal is a day where Iranian crude — one of the world's larger supplies — stays off the market or remains blocked. Oil prices rising to $114 is, in large part, the market pricing in a world where that crude stays missing for longer than anyone hoped.

Iran exports a significant portion of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A naval blockade combined with failed negotiations means supply is not just disrupted — it is structurally unavailable. The oil futures market, which often lags physical markets by days or weeks, is now catching up fast. WTI rising 3.48% to $103.40 in a single session tells you traders are no longer pricing in a quick resolution. They are pricing in a prolonged standoff, and that changes everything from refinery procurement schedules to airline fuel hedges.

What Rising Oil Prices Mean for Gas Prices, Inflation, and the Fed

Crude oil accounts for more than half of what you pay at the gas pump. When oil prices rise sharply, pump prices follow — fast. But when oil prices fall, gas prices ease slowly, a well-documented asymmetry economists call "rockets and feathers." That asymmetry means consumers absorb the upside of every oil spike quickly and recover from it slowly.

The FOMC meeting today is front and center for U.S. investors, with the Federal Reserve set to release its Fed interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the Jerome Powell speech at 2:30 PM ET. Markets are pricing in a near-certain hold, but that headline misses the real story. Inflation is running near 3.3% year over year, oil prices have surged sharply in 2026, and labor data keeps swinging between strength and slowdown. That mix puts the US Fed policy today in a delicate spot.

Contracts that once reflected two full quarter-point cuts in 2026 now show roughly a one-in-five chance of even a single cut. The Fed wanted to ease policy. Oil prices rising to $114 just made that much harder.

The UAE Exit From OPEC and What It Signals About the Future of Oil Supply

In the middle of the crisis, the United Arab Emirates announced it would leave both OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. This is significant. The UAE has been pushing for years to deploy new production capacity that OPEC quotas would not allow. By leaving the alliance, it gains the freedom to pump more. Oil prices briefly pulled back from session highs on that news — a reminder that supply additions, even prospective ones, carry weight in this market.

But the relief was partial and temporary. The UAE's additional barrels cannot replace Iranian volumes overnight, and the broader supply picture remains constrained. The American Petroleum Institute's inventory data, released Tuesday, showed U.S. crude and product stockpiles continuing to fall for the week ending April 24. Falling inventories in the world's largest consumer of oil, combined with a major export route under blockade, is not a backdrop that supports lower prices. It supports oil prices rising further, or staying elevated for longer than the optimists in any room want to admit.

How Oil Prices Have Moved Through History

Oil has never been a stable asset. Brent crude has seen wars push it above $100, recessions crash it below $20, and a pandemic collapse it to levels not seen in a generation. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Arab exporters imposed an embargo and oil prices quadrupled in months. In 2008, surging global demand pushed Brent above $140 before the financial crisis wiped out demand almost overnight. During COVID lockdowns in 2020, oil briefly traded below $20 per barrel as global travel vanished.

What makes 2025 different is the combination of a geopolitical blockade, a diplomatic deadlock, dwindling strategic reserves, and a central bank narrative that is now colliding head-on with energy inflation. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was designed for exactly this kind of emergency — hurricanes, sanctions, supply shocks. It provides short-term relief without solving the underlying problem. And right now, the underlying problem has a long timeline. Oil prices rising past $114 is not a spike. It is a signal that markets have stopped believing in a quick fix.

What about Natural Gas

As oil prices rise, natural gas becomes more attractive to industrial users who can switch fuels. That increased demand for natural gas eventually pushes its price higher too, compounding energy inflation across the board. This cross-commodity effect means rising oil prices do not stay contained in gasoline. They spread through heating bills, manufacturing costs, shipping rates, and food prices. The inflationary pressure is systemic, not isolated.

For ordinary households in the United States, Europe, and beyond, this matters enormously. Energy is not a discretionary expense. You cannot skip heating or stop commuting because Brent is at $114. That is what makes oil inflation so politically and economically potent. It hits everyone, immediately, proportionately harder on lower incomes, and it does not wait for policymakers to catch up. Oil prices rising this sharply, this fast, with this much geopolitical uncertainty behind them, is an event that reshapes not just markets — but the conditions under which ordinary economic life is conducted. And that shift, right now, is ongoing.