Why oil prices are rising today: Brent crude near $62 as Venezuela and Middle East tensions keep markets on edge

Oil prices today: Oil prices moved slightly higher as markets tried to make sense of fast-moving geopolitical developments, even as concerns about a growing global supply surplus continued to cap gains, as per a report.

Oil prices edge higher today: Brent crude holds near $62 after biggest gain in a week

Brent crude traded near $62 a barrel after posting its biggest daily gain in a week, rising 1.7% in the previous session, as per a Bloomberg report.

Venezuela political changes keep oil traders on alert

Traders are closely watching developments in Venezuela following the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, with energy companies expected to enter talks with Washington over the country’s oil sector.


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Middle East tensions add to market uncertainty

Attention is also focused on the Middle East, where Israel reiterated on Monday that it would not allow Iran to rebuild its ballistic missile program, as per the Bloomberg report. While these tensions have added uncertainty, market participants remain skeptical that they will lead to a sustained rise in oil prices.

Oil traders doubt geopolitical risks will lift prices

Ben Luckock, global head of oil at Trafigura Group, said that, “I don’t perceive significantly higher prices almost regardless of what events happen with Iran, with Ukraine and with Venezuela,” and added that the barrels Venezuela is likely to return this year are “very, very few," as quoted by Bloomberg.

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Venezuela’s shrinking role in global oil supply

The muted price response reflects deeper supply issues in the market. Venezuela now accounts for less than 1% of global oil production after years of underinvestment, severely weakened its energy infrastructure.

Global oil surplus continues to weigh on prices

Beyond Venezuela, the global oil market is grappling with a swelling surplus and that oversupply has already pushed Saudi Arabia to reduce crude prices to Asia for a third consecutive month.

Morgan Stanley cuts oil price forecasts for 2026

Morgan Stanley expects the surplus to grow through the first half of the year and peak around mid-year, as per the Bloomberg report. The bank has lowered its oil price forecasts for the first three quarters of 2026. Oil futures ended last year with their biggest annual decline since 2020 as OPEC+ and other producers increased supply.

US officials discuss reviving Venezuela’s energy sector

Chevron Corp remains the only US oil major operating in Venezuela under special US authorization. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected to hold talks this week with oil industry executives about reviving Venezuela’s energy sector, as per the Bloomberg report. US president Donald Trump told NBC News that the US may subsidize efforts aimed at rebuilding the country’s oil industry.

Shares of US oil companies rose on Monday amid optimism tied to a potential revival of Venezuela’s energy sector. That followed speculation fueled by tanker blockades and a buildup of US forces in the region, which had raised concerns about possible escalation involving the energy-rich country.

FAQs

How much is Brent crude trading at?

Brent crude was trading near $62 a barrel.



What happened in Venezuela affecting oil markets?

President Nicolás Maduro was removed, and energy companies are expected to hold talks with Washington.