Why did Iran’s largest crypto exchange see a 700% withdrawal spike minutes after US-Israel airstrikes hit Tehran?

Iran crypto outflows after US Israel airstrikes: As missiles began striking Tehran, many ordinary Iranians appeared to react in the only way they could control, by moving their money.

Crypto Outflows Spike as Missiles Hit Tehran: $10.3 Million Leaves Iranian Exchanges in 72 Hours

New on-chain data published Monday by Chainalysis shows roughly $10.3 million in cryptoasset outflows from major Iranian exchanges between February 28 and March 2, as reported by Forbes. The surge aligned almost exactly with the hour US and Israeli missiles hit the capital in an operation Israel called Operation Roaring Lion and the US Department of Defense referred to as Epic Fury.

Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury: Crypto Reacts in Real Time

The strikes marked the most significant military action against Iran since the 12-day war in June 2025. After reports confirmed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the assault, it prompted immediate retaliation from Tehran across the Gulf region.

Iran’s $7.8 Billion Crypto Market Faces Geopolitical Shock

On the blockchain, the response was swift. Hourly outflows from Iranian exchanges jumped sharply within hours of the first reports, at times nearing or exceeding $2 million per hour, as per the Forbes report. According to Chainalysis, this fits a broader pattern: Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem tends to spike during periods of domestic or geopolitical shock.

Bitcoin Volatility Explained

Global markets felt the tremors too. Bitcoin fell as much as 3.8%, touching $63,255, before rebounding above $68,000 after confirmation of Khamenei’s death.

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Why Bitcoin (BTC USD) Acted as a “Pressure Valve”

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Bloomberg that during critical weekend events, Bitcoin often acts as a “pressure valve.”

The cryptocurrency ultimately outperformed US equity futures. The Nasdaq, which futures had suggested might open more than 2% lower, closed down just 0.1% Monday, as per the Forbes report.

Three Possible Drivers Behind the Crypto Withdrawals

The story inside Iran may be more complex. Chainalysis outlined three possible explanations for the surge: everyday citizens moving funds into self-custody as a hedge against instability; exchanges in a sanctioned jurisdiction cycling funds to new wallets; and state-aligned actors, including IRGC-linked entities, using domestic platforms to move value amid the chaos, as per the Forbes report.

700% Crypto Surge in Crypto Outflows Within Minutes

Separate data from Elliptic adds another layer. The firm reported that outflows from Nobitex, Iran’s largest exchange with more than 11 million users, surged 700% within minutes of the first strikes. Funds flowed toward overseas exchanges that historically receive significant Iranian volume.

Elliptic suggested the spike could represent capital flight. Nobitex allows rials to be converted into cryptoassets and withdrawn to external wallets, enabling funds to leave the country while avoiding some scrutiny of the global banking system.

How Past Internet Blackouts Influenced Bitcoin Withdrawals

Chainalysis also pointed to precedent. During Iran’s most recent protest wave earlier this year, bitcoin withdrawals rose in the days before authorities imposed a blanket internet blackout, then flatlined, and resumed once connectivity returned. The pattern suggested some users anticipated further instability and moved assets while they still could.

FAQs

Why did crypto outflows increase during the strikes?

Data shows withdrawals surged almost immediately after missiles hit Tehran, suggesting a rapid financial response to instability.



How much money left Iranian exchanges?

Roughly $10.3 million in cryptoassets flowed out between February 28 and March 2.