US stock futures on the move: Why Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq are climbing today - Oil and gold prices rise after Caracas power shift

US stock futures are moving higher at the start of the week as investors balance geopolitical shock with resilient market fundamentals. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are holding near 48,600, while S&P 500 futures trade close to 6,920 and Nasdaq futures jump above 25,500, signaling renewed risk appetite after a volatile weekend. The catalyst is the dramatic power shift in Caracas following a US-led operation that resulted in the removal and arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Despite the headline risk, Wall Street reaction has been measured. Strategists note that Venezuela now contributes less than 1% of global oil supply, limiting long-term economic fallout. Still, near-term uncertainty has pushed investors toward safe havens.

ALSO READ: Why are Chevron and Exxon Mobil stock jumping today - U.S. oil stocks add over $100 billion on Venezuela’s oil shock


Gold prices surged above $4,420 an ounce, extending a historic rally fueled by central bank buying and expectations of lower US interest rates.

Oil prices briefly dipped before stabilizing, with Brent near $60 and WTI around $57, as markets weighed potential supply disruptions against an already well-supplied global market.

Equities, especially technology stocks, are climbing as investors refocus on earnings growth, artificial intelligence momentum, and a critical US jobs report due later this week. For now, futures suggest Wall Street is choosing confidence over fear, even as geopolitics reshapes the global backdrop.

US stock futures rise as investors assess Venezuela developments

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro by US special forces has triggered an immediate repricing of global risk. Gold prices, which saw their best annual performance since 1979 last year, surged 2.1% on Monday as investors sought "insurance" against the unpredictability of US military reach. While the Dow and S&P 500 remain in the green, the move has introduced a rare level of direct US involvement in a regional conflict, differing from the indirect support seen in previous years.

The "Caracas Power Shift" is particularly significant because Venezuela holds an estimated 161 metric tonnes of gold reserves and the world's largest proven oil deposits. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled that the US will use "tremendous leverage" to ensure a transition, stopping short of permanent governance. This nuanced stance has allowed equity markets to maintain their momentum, as the fear of a broader regional war remains low compared to the potential for a US-led economic reconstruction of the South American nation.

Strategists largely argued that, from a market perspective, Venezuela’s reduced role in the global economy limits long-term fallout. The country now produces less than one million barrels of oil per day, accounting for under 1% of global supply. As a result, equity investors appeared more focused on earnings, rates, and growth than on sustained geopolitical disruption.

Friday’s mixed close on Wall Street also played a role. Investors locked in some gains after a strong start to the year, but Monday’s futures rebound suggests dip-buying remains active, particularly in technology and cyclicals.

Top pre-market gainers

• Sidus Space (SIDU)
  Shares jump 21.25% to $5.25, touching the top of their 52-week range. The move comes on rising speculative interest in small-cap space and defense-linked names.
  
  
• Regencell Bioscience (RGC)
  Up a massive 54.53% to $31.74, one of the strongest percentage gainers in the entire pre-market. Volume remains elevated as momentum traders pile in.
  
  
• Chevron (CVX)
  Shares surge 8.18% to $168.66 as energy stocks react to Middle East and Venezuela-related supply uncertainty, lifting integrated oil majors.
  
  
• SLB (SLB)
  Up nearly 10% at $44.19, benefiting from expectations of higher upstream spending and near-term oil price volatility.
  
  
• Micron Technology (MU)
  Gains 2.82% to $324.31, extending its rally on continued AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory.
  
  
• Intel (INTC)
  Trades 1.83% higher at $40.10, tracking broader semiconductor strength ahead of CES-related announcements.
  
  
• NVIDIA (NVDA)
  Up 0.71% to $190.19, holding firm after a strong start to the year as AI optimism remains intact.
  
  
• Ondas Holdings (ONDS)
  Rises 2.00% to $11.24, continuing its recent momentum.
  
  
• Plug Power (PLUG)
  Modestly higher at $2.26, up 1.35%, as clean-energy names see selective buying.
  
  
• MARA Holdings (MARA)
  Shares climb 3.43% to $10.25, tracking strength in crypto-linked equities.
  
  

Pre-market losers

• NIO (NIO)
  Down 2.14% to $5.03, making it one of the notable pre-market decliners as pressure continues on Chinese EV stocks amid weak demand outlook.

Oil, gold, and commodities react to US military action

Energy markets showed early volatility but avoided panic. Brent crude briefly slid toward $60 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $57, before stabilizing. Analysts noted that any short-term disruption to Venezuelan exports could be offset by increased supply from other producers, especially as global demand growth slows.

OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, recently agreed to pause additional supply increases in the first quarter. The group did not address Venezuela directly, reinforcing the view that the situation remains too fluid to warrant immediate action. Several economists expect global oil markets to remain in surplus through the year, putting downward pressure on prices despite geopolitical noise.

However, the long-term outlook is shifting. President Trump has stated that US oil majors are prepared to invest billions to rehabilitate Venezuela's dilapidated infrastructure. Former executives from firms like Chevron are reportedly already eyeing $2 billion in private placements for Venezuelan projects. If successful, this could eventually triple Venezuela's output, returning it to historic levels of 3 million barrels per day.

Gold told a different story. Spot prices jumped above $4,420 an ounce, building on their strongest annual performance in decades. Safe-haven demand surged as investors priced in greater geopolitical unpredictability and lingering inflation risks. Central bank buying, ETF inflows, and recent Federal Reserve rate cuts have already provided strong support for bullion, and the Venezuela shock added another tailwind.

Silver followed gold higher, posting even sharper percentage gains, highlighting how quickly defensive assets can attract capital during periods of uncertainty.

Tech stocks, AI optimism, and CES take center stage

Technology shares remained the market’s bright spot. The Nasdaq’s outperformance reflected sustained enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and cloud infrastructure. Investors are closely watching NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company as the CES technology show begins in Las Vegas this week.

TSMC shares jumped sharply after Goldman Sachs raised its price target by 35%, citing strong AI-driven demand and improving margins. The firm expects TSMC to invest roughly $150 billion over the next three years to expand capacity, reinforcing its central role in the global AI supply chain.

Asian tech stocks broadly followed TSMC higher, suggesting global investors remain willing to add exposure despite valuation concerns. The fear of missing out on further AI gains continues to outweigh short-term worries about overheating, especially as earnings momentum remains solid across the sector.

In US premarket trading, names like Tesla, NVIDIA, Intel, and Oracle all posted gains, reinforcing the view that growth and innovation themes still dominate investor positioning.

Jobs report and economic data loom large for Wall Street

Beyond geopolitics and tech, macroeconomic data will play a decisive role in shaping market direction this week. Friday’s US jobs report is the main event. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect payroll growth of about 55,000, signaling a cooling labor market after years of resilience.

A softer jobs print would likely reinforce expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, a backdrop generally supportive of equities, especially growth stocks. Conversely, any upside surprise could revive concerns about inflation persistence and delay the pace of easing.

Other data releases, including services activity and inflation expectations, will help investors gauge whether the US economy is heading for a soft landing or a sharper slowdown. For now, futures pricing suggests cautious optimism. Markets appear willing to look past geopolitical shocks as long as economic fundamentals remain intact.