US Presidential Election 2024: What are the odds of Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden? Betting markets reflect recent trends

It is not just the national surveys which are indicating the declining popularity levels of President Joe Biden, it is now even the betting markets who are losing faith in the president and his ability to continue in office. Research on the various betting markets has revealed that the odds of Vice-President Kamala Harris replacing Biden on the ballot box are higher.

In the betting markets, a basic principle is when the price of an outcome is priced low, the likelihood of it happening is high. Higher the price means lower the expected outcome. Higher the price also indicates higher the risk and the person betting on the outcome taking a higher risk in favor of the outcome and expecting a positive outcome.

Betting odds:

UK Book Maker Star Sports revealed that the odds of Harris leading the Democratic party have shortened from +450 to +110 after Biden was diagnosed with COVID-19. The chances of Harris moving ahead of Biden have also shortened +450. The odds of Biden continuing this election campaign has increased to +700.

Other candidates according to various book makers:

While Biden and Harris are being discussed by various book makers, there are other candidates too being discussed. Harris is expected to replace Biden on the ballot box and receive the presidential nomination in the party’s national convention in August.

The two most popular candidates are Gretchen Whitmer who is the Governor of Michigan and her counterpart from California Gavin Newsom. The likelihood of Whitmer replacing Biden is at +2800 (Star Sports), +2500 (Bovada), +2000 (Bet Online), +2900 (Odds Checker). The likelihood of her replacing Biden are low and hence these rates are also high. Often, dark horses start at a high rate and may move up at later stages.

Newsom has the following odds: +1600 (Star Sports), +2000 (Bovada and Bet Online) and +2700 (Odds Checker).

Another candidate who is leading in all national surveys in case of a hypothetical competition with Trump is former First Lady Michelle Obama. The odds of her replacing Biden are: +1400 (Star Sports), +1200 (Bovada), +1600 (Bet Online) and +1800 (Odds Checker).

FAQs
Is Joe Biden planning to step down?
Media reports indicate that there are hectic parleys going on to convince him to end his election campaign. He may end his election campaign during this weekend.

When did Biden’s political troubles begin?
While many had earlier discussed Biden’s ‘cognitive decline’, the election year has proved to be stressful for the president. After the first presidential debate, he has appeared to be weak and displaying sings of various health challenges. Many Democrats have called on him to end his campaign after the debate.