US Presidential Election 2024: Betting data indicates Trump ahead; Does Harris have a chance of winning? Here are the details

It is not only the stock markets and national surveys that are keenly watching the developments pertaining to the upcoming US Presidential Election. The betting market is also closely watching these developments. The announcement by President Joe Biden that he has quit the race and endorsed Kamala Harris has been well received by the betting market. This has been reported by Sky News.

Data from the Betfair Exchange revels that though Harris has surged ahead in recent times, she is still trailing behind her opponent Donald Trump. Harris has received the support from many members within her party. Further, the odds in the betting market are constantly evolving.

Trump and Biden:

After the disastrous performance in the first presidential debate, Biden trailed behind Trump by 57 percentage points before he pulled out. The betting market assessed Trump’s chances of winning at 64%, Harris at 17% and Biden who had only 7% of winning.


After the assassination attempt on Trump and just before the Republican National Convention, Trump’s chances stood at 69%. Trump’s chances after Biden pulled out of the race stood at 62%.

Kamala Harris:

The decision by Biden to endorse his running mate only marginally improved Harris’ chances of winning the election by 6%. Her chances of winning stood at 23%. Presently, her chances of winning stand at 29% which is the highest ever recorded but this is still 33% behind Trump.

According to the betting market, in 2021, Harris stood a better chance of defeating both Trump and Biden.

Biden was ahead of Trump:

Since July 2024, the former President Trump has maintained a lead of over 40%-50% over his successor. He has been ahead of Biden since the time the incumbent president faced impeachment proceedings in September 2023.

Biden was ahead of Trump for three days in April 2024 and maintained a lead of less than 1%. On June 7, 2023, Biden had the highest lead over Trump when he led by 18%.

Is this static?

As the data shows, this is not static. It is dynamic and is expected to change in the days ahead before the presidential election.

FAQs

Is Joe Biden stepping down as the US President?
There is demand by some Republicans that the president should step down due to various health concerns. They are calling for the application of the provisions of the 25^th Amendment of the US Constitution.

What is the hush money case involving Donald Trump?
The former president has been convicted on 34 counts of felony by a jury in New York. He had paid an adult actor to stay silent and these funds were not accounted for.