US midterm polls 2026 prediction: Donald Trump activates $500 million election war chest for November election as Democrats predicted to win Senate, House of Representatives

President Donald Trump has unleashed more than $277 million in a last-minute TV and direct mail advertising blitz over the final six weeks of the midterm campaign to help struggling Republican candidates in several races that are key to the party's chances to retain control of the US Congress. Trump's MAGA Inc super PAC, which has spent over $300 million on the midterms so far, poured the most money directly or through other PACs into the Texas, Michigan and Ohio Senate races where the Republican candidates are in tight races and trailing Democratic challengers in most polls, Federal Election Commission data shows.

Trump said on Truth Social that he planned to spend $400 million to $500 million by election day, now less than two weeks away. He channeled $225 million of the recent spending through two other super PACs, No Going Back and Safety & Affordability, the filings show. Super PACs can accept and spend unlimited amounts on campaigns with few restrictions.

Big Spendings on Texas, Michigan, Ohio


Together, the PACs have spent more than $36 million on the Texas Senate race for Ken Paxton, $30.1 million to help Mike Rogers in Michigan, and over $28 million supporting Jon Husted in Ohio. The three seats are key to Republicans retaining control of the Senate where the party has a 53-47 majority.

Democrats need to pick up at least four seats in November's midterm elections to win control of the 100-seat US Senate. Their chances have improved as sky-high fuel prices, ICE raids and the Iran war have driven Trump's popularity to historic lows.

US Midterm Polls Prediction

Election forecaster Nate Silver's latest data places the Democrats' chances of taking the Senate at over 77 per cent with a 53-47 majority and the House at more than 94 per cent with a 240-195 majority.

Elon Musk has joined Trump in pouring money into his new home state of Texas, where Musk moved Tesla and SpaceX's headquarters in recent years.

MAGA Inc waited until the last few weeks to ramp up advertising, causing angst among Republican leaders.

Donors for Donald Trump

Republican mega donors turned out for Trump last month. Hotel and casino mogul Stephen Wynn donated $8 million, Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman and businesswoman Diane Hendricks gave $5 million apiece in September alone. Australian crypto billionaire Bijan Tehrani and Russian-born businessman Konstanin Sokolov each donated $1 million last month, the filings show.

Hendricks has given $30 million to MAGA Inc so far this year, while Tehrani and Sokolov have donated $2 million each, according to the filings. The super PAC still had $164 million in available cash as of last week. It has raised roughly $450 million this campaign cycle.