US Government shutdown to benefit Republicans or Democrats in mid-term elections? Recent results offer hints

Political leaders in Washington are spending considerable energy blaming the other party for what could be an extended government shutdown, and that effort includes shaping the narrative for next year's elections.

The Democratic campaign arm for House members has taken out digital ads in 35 districts it considers competitive. The ads accuse the Republicans of “standing in the way of affordable health care — on purpose.” The ads align with Democratic insistence that their health coverage concerns be addressed as part of a bill to fund the government, a demand Republicans have rejected. A Democratic-aligned group, House Majority Forward, also launched a $3 million ad campaign in 10 Republican-held districts.

The House Republican campaign organization has launched two digital ads in swing districts. “It’s sabotage. Democrats are threatening a government shutdown to stop President Trump’s policies. Like Trump’s crackdown on MS-13 and violent criminals,” one of the ads says. Meanwhile, two conservative advocacy groups, One Nation and American Action Network, announced ad buys in New York and Washington markets. “The woke mob demanded a government shutdown,” the ad says. “So that’s exactly what liberals in Congress are doing.”


With narrow margins determining who controls each chamber of Congress, the two parties cannot afford to leave anything to chance when it comes to winning the shutdown's messaging campaign. But recent history suggests there is reason to doubt the shutdown will be a factor in the 2026 election.

Republicans won Big after Forcing Shutdown in 2013

The October 2013 shutdown that lasted for 16 full days is Exhibit A. Republicans demanded significant changes to Democratic-President Barack Obama’s signature health care law in exchange for funding the government and giving the Treasury Department the ability to borrow to pay the nation’s bills.

A year after, Republicans scored big wins at the ballot box. They gained 13 seats in the House, expanding upon their already significant majority. They also gained nine seats in the Senate, seizing the majority.

2018-2019 Partial Shutdown

The election results were mixed following the 2018-2019 partial shutdown that lasted 35 days.

Republican President Donald Trump insisted that a funding bill include billions of dollars for his U.S.-Mexico border wall. Senate Democrats refused to go along. The shutdown ended as Democratic leaders had insisted it must: Reopen the government first, then talk border security.

Trump would go on to lose to Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. But that race happened during a COVID-19 pandemic that clearly was front and center for voters. Democrats would gain three seats in the Senate to forge a 50-50 tie and the majority, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaker. But Republicans picked up seats in the House, even though many had expected Democrats to expand their majority.

While the two most recent extended shutdowns suggests a limited impact on subsequent elections, it is a small sample size. A lengthy and painful shutdown could change the dynamic.

FAQs

Q1. Is US Government shutdown going on?
A1. Yes. U.S. Government shutdown is still on.

Q2. What happened after 2018-2019 partial shutdown?
A2. The election results were mixed following the 2018-2019 partial shutdown that lasted 35 days.