US abortion rates rise three years after Dobbs' new ruling on Roe vs Wade, here's why

Three years after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade, the U.S. finds itself at the epicenter of a new abortion battle, one that’s defying expectations and reshaping the strategies of both pro-life and pro-choice movements. Despite the pro-life victory in the courts, abortion rates have not dropped; instead, they’ve remained steady or even increased, raising provocative questions about the true impact of legal bans and the future of reproductive rights in America.

The next big fight for abortion opponents is the organisation Planned Parenthood, the nation’s leading provider and advocate of affordable sexual and reproductive health care, operates nearly 600 health centers across the country.

The unexpected rise: Abortion rates defy pro-life predictions

Contrary to pro-life hopes, the number of abortions in the U.S. has not declined post-Dobbs. Recent data from the Charlotte Lozier Institute shows over 1.1 million abortions occurred from July 2023 to June 2024, matching or exceeding pre-Dobbs levels. This estimate, based on the most comprehensive aggregation of clinic, hospital, and virtual provider data, highlights a resilient demand for abortion services even as legal landscapes shift.


Researchers caution, however, that the true number may be even higher, as the U.S. lacks a federal abortion reporting mandate and medication abortions, especially those facilitated by international mail-order, are difficult to track with precision.

The new battlefield: Pills, politics and laws

The unexpected resilience of abortion rates is largely driven by the rise of medication abortion. With the FDA’s approval for mail-order mifepristone, telehealth and shield laws have enabled access even in states with bans, and up to 20% of abortions in 2024 were provided via telehealth under such protections. This has allowed patients to bypass state restrictions, fueling what pro-life leaders call a "direct assault on the sovereignty of states."

Pro-life advocates are now focusing on new priorities in response to these trends. Their big challenges, they say, include weakening Planned Parenthood, by targeting its funding streams. Restricting access to abortion pills remains a top objective, as does investing in supportive political candidates and ballot initiatives.

Some pro-life lawmakers believe there is a strong chance of defunding Planned Parenthood through a broader reconciliation bill in Congress, which would block Medicaid funds for organizations performing abortions except in cases of rape, incest, or threats to the mother’s life.

Planned Parenthood, responding to these legislative moves, warned in a statement after the bill passed the Republican-led House in May that such provisions would cut off funding for a range of services beyond abortion, potentially forcing about 200 of its 600 locations to close. "If this bill passes, people will lose access to essential, often lifesaving care — cancer screenings, birth control, STI testing, and yes, abortion," the organization said.

Meanwhile, other pro-choice groups are leveraging "shield laws" and ballot initiatives to protect and expand access, turning some states into abortion havens while others enforce near-total bans.