Trump’s approval takes stunning turn in fresh poll — here’s what changed

Donald Trump is facing another dip in public support as the nation pushes through the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. A new Emerson College poll shows his approval sliding again, setting off alarm bells for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. With voter motivation leaning toward Democrats and key groups turning away from the president, the numbers paint a challenging picture for the GOP.

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The Emerson College poll released Friday shows Trump’s approval rating down four percentage points since October, now sitting at 41% approval and 49% disapproval. At the beginning of his second administration, he opened with stronger numbers, 49% approval and 41% disapproval, making the reversal particularly striking as the shutdown stretches on without compromise from either side. The study sampled 1,000 registered voters from November 3 to 4 and possesses a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points, as per a report by NJ.com.


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Why is Trump’s approval rating sliding?

“Nearly one year after he was elected, President Trump’s approval has flipped since the first Emerson College poll of the new administration,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

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Kimball noted significant erosion among key groups. "Since his inauguration, Trump has lost support among key groups: Republican voters’ approval decreased 12 points from 91% to 79%, and his disapproval intensified among independent voters, from 44% to 51%, and Hispanics, from 39% to 54%,” he added, as per a report by NJ.com.

The shutdown, driven by partisan gridlock, has only deepened frustration among voters watching Washington stall.

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What do the poll numbers show for 2026?

Trouble may be building for Republicans ahead of the midterm cycle. According to the poll, 44% of voters say they plan to back the Democratic candidate in 2026, compared with 40% who plan to vote Republican, and 16% still undecided.

Democrats also appear more energized. “Democrats report being most motivated to vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections, at 71%, compared to 60% of Republicans, and 42% of independents,” Kimball said, as per a report by NJ.com.

Which voters are shifting away?

Despite Democrats’ momentum, the party isn’t without challenges: only 35% of voters view it favorably, compared with 44% favorability for Republicans. However, the poll suggests Trump could weigh heavily on GOP prospects. Forty-three percent of voters say their 2026 vote will be to oppose Trump, while 29% will vote to support him, and 28% say he won’t factor into their choice, as per a report by NJ.com.

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FAQs

What is Trump’s current approval rating?
Trump’s approval rating stands at 41%, with 49% disapproval in the latest Emerson College poll.

How are the 2026 midterms looking?
Democrats currently hold a slight edge on the generic ballot and show higher motivation to vote.