Trump vs Musk: Bettors place the odds as Trump and “Ego Elon” Musk’s feud turns into a high-stakes public spectacle

The feud between the world’s most powerful man, US President Donald Trump, and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, has evolved from a heated social media exchange into a high-profile spectacle that is capturing attention from people across the world. Betting houses, too, have jumped in and are wagering on everything, from a hypothetical physical fight to a nickname Trump might give to Musk.

Offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag has made Musk a favorite to win a physical fight against Trump, listing him at −400 odds compared to Trump’s +250 underdog status, highlighting the absurdity and public fascination with the clash of these two titans.

Musk’s black eye

The site even posted odds on who gave Musk the black eye he sported at the White House on May 30, a bruise Musk claims came from his 5-year-old son, X, during playful horsing around.

Other odds cover topics such as which White House staffer might be responsible, with Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, favored over others.

Bettors can even wager on which nickname Trump will assign Musk, with “Ego Elon” leading at 5-1, followed by “Mad Musk” and “Oddball Elon.”

Will Musk and Trump reconcile?

Blockchain-based Polymarket assigns only a 31 percent chance that Trump and Musk will publicly reconcile before July, with a mere 1 percent chance that Trump will apologize by early June, highlighting the low optimism for a thaw in relations.

Rival site Kalshi projects a 57 percent probability of a phone call between the two before July, yet Musk's unfollowing Trump on social media carries a 20-27 percent chance, indicating that social media warfare may continue even if private dialogue occurs.

Musk himself has mused publicly about launching a new political party to represent the “80 percent in the middle,” a plan with about a 24 percent chance of materializing by year-end, according to traders, showing that Musk is thinking beyond the feud toward broader political disruption.

How it all started

The dispute started after Musk publicly condemned Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” a legislative package Trump championed, calling it a “disgusting abomination” filled with wasteful spending.

Musk’s sharp rebuke targeted the bill’s elimination of electric vehicle tax credits, a move that directly threatens Tesla’s competitive edge in the automotive market.

In response, Trump fired back on his Truth Social platform, expressing “very disappointed” feelings towards Musk and threatening to cut government contracts from Tesla and SpaceX, companies that rely heavily on federal funding and contracts.

The stakes are high as Tesla’s stock suffered a severe 14 percent drop in one of its worst trading days, wiping out roughly $150 billion in market value.

Meanwhile, Musk’s public discontent has led to rumors that Trump is considering selling a red Tesla he purchased earlier this year, symbolizing how personal animosity has spilled into financial decisions and public perception.

Musk had donated over $250 million to support Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and even led the short-lived Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in Trump’s administration. The billionaire now accuses Trump of ingratitude, posting on social media, “Without me, Trump would have lost the election,” underscoring a sense of betrayal.

Trump, in response, has dismissed Musk as having “lost his mind,” refused calls for reconciliation, and reportedly called off a planned phone conversation brokered by White House officials aiming to cool tensions.

The Jefferey Epstein connection

Musk went on to add a darker layer to the feud after he announced that Trump was a part of the Epstein list, the disgraced financier whose criminal activities continue to haunt many powerful figures.

Whether this clash cools down or intensifies, it’s clear that the world will be watching and placing their bets.