Trump tariffs: Stock markets to tank another 20%, Bitcoin to fall to $54,000? Here's what analysts and economists are saying

The ongoing US-China trade war has caused waves across the global markets, with numerous analysts and economists forecasting further trouble for the economy. While US president Donald Trump threatens to charge a 50% retaliatory tariff on Chinese imports after it imposed a 34% tariff on US imports, alarm is growing that both stock markets and Bitcoin will experience major losses in the foreseeable future, according to The Street.

Bitcoin's Uncertain Future

American cryptocurrency-based prediction company, Polymarket, have put a bearish bet on Bitcoin this year, reported The Street. Over 76% predict the price of Bitcoin to fall to $70,000, as per poll.

As of Monday, Bitcoin was trading at $78,450.29 and the total crypto market cap fell 5.97% in 24 hours to $2.47 trillion, according to the report.


Chart analyst and well-known trader, Peter Brandt, a well-known chart expert, has been following Bitcoin's action closely and identified that Bitcoin’s technicals of $54,000 are a crucial retracement level, a 50% pullback from prior highs, reported The Street. Brandt thinks Bitcoin may go on to move lower, particularly if more general economic pressures and the current trade war continue, as per the report.

Brandt said, ""When I started trading we created our own charts from graph paper? And you wonder why my generation still uses white backgrounds? If the young guns of today had started then, would they have used black paper with white, green and red ink pens? BTW, $54k is a 50% retrace in BTC," quoted The Street. This suggests deeper downside could follow as BTC has fallen.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley claimed that “It’s no coincidence that Bitcoin originated during a financial crisis,” as quoted in the report. Horsley also mentioned that Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against crisis may soon be tested again, reported The Street.

Stock Market Worries: Another 20% Crash?

The impact of the US-China tariff war is already felt on Wall Street, and analysts worry it may worsen. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink cautioned investors that in the event of a further escalation in trade tensions, a further decline of 20% in equity markets looms, reported The Street. Although Fink is upbeat, referring to this as a possible "buying opportunity," he warned “that doesn’t mean we can’t fall another 20% from here," quoted The Street.

Markets Underestimating Recession Risk

Economist Peter Schiff said that the markets are still underestimating the risk of a coming recession, especially if Trump's tariffs remain, according to the report. He noted that even with recent market losses, the stock market is still expensive and not ready for what is potentially the worst recession since the Great Depression, as per The Street.

He also thinks Bitcoin is “unlikely” to solve this market crisis, reported The Street.

FAQs

Why are people betting against Bitcoin?
Polymarket bettors are predicting Bitcoin will drop in price due to global economic pressures, like the US-China trade war.

Could the stock market drop another 20%?
According to BlackRock’s Larry Fink, if trade tensions escalate, the stock market could see another 20% drop.