Trump removal talk surges: Who can invoke the 25th Amendment and when

Talks about removing Donald Trump using the 25th Amendment increased this weekend as the Iran war situation became more serious. Prediction market data showed more people betting on the possibility that Trump could be declared unfit to serve, reflecting rising public speculation, as reported by Newsweek.

On Kalshi, trading activity went up as users placed bets on whether Cabinet-level action might happen. The discussion comes during a global crisis linked to the Iran conflict, which is raising questions about decision-making at the top level of government. The 25th Amendment allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare a president unable to perform duties.

25th Amendment rules

Experts say even small changes in prediction markets can affect political narratives, investor confidence, and public perception. Kalshi hosted a contract asking, “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?” allowing traders to buy “Yes” or “No”. The “Yes” probability rose from 28.6% to 35.1% in the last month, the second-highest level since the second term began, as noted by Newsweek.


The market first opened at 15% in January 2025, showing a significant increase over time. Traders reacted partly to Trump’s social media posts about Iran and threats linked to civilian infrastructure. On Easter Sunday, Trump posted a profanity-filled message on Truth Social warning Iran about the Strait of Hormuz. Chris Murphy urged the Cabinet to consider using the 25th Amendment and called Trump’s post “completely, utterly unhinged”.

Cabinet role explained

The 25th Amendment has never been used to remove a president from office. It is usually used for a short time when a president has a medical procedure. To use it, the vice president and the Cabinet must agree. Congress may also need to be involved. Because of this, the process is legally and politically very difficult. Newsweek reported this.

Some critics say prediction markets can create panic. Supporters say these markets show what people think in real time. Analysts believe the market may stay unstable as long as global tensions and public attention continue.

FAQs

Q1. Who can use the 25th Amendment to remove a president?

The vice president and a majority of the Cabinet must declare the president unfit, and Congress may also review it.

Q2. Why are people talking about the 25th Amendment and Donald Trump now?

Prediction market bets rose after Iran war tensions and controversial social media posts increased public debate.