Trump could score big against Kamala Harris according to these latest swing state polls

According to recent polls from seven states that are considered battlegrounds, Donald Trump has a chance to win in November by commanding 296 electoral votes. According to Trafalgar, which conducted a poll between August 28 and 30, Trump is predicted to win 44 electoral votes in November from the crucial Blue Wall states, barely defeating opponents in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Between August 29 and August 31, Insider Advantage conducted polling in four additional battleground states; Trump won Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. These states are still statistically tied, which means the results could go either way. The former president wins Trafalgar in the Wolverine State by a narrow margin, 47% to 46.6%. Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is greater, at 47% to 45%. Even though a 2% victory wouldn't be a landslide, it would still be a larger victory than Trump's meagre 0.72% win in the state eight years prior.

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It's important to note that all three of these states are currently leaning toward Harris according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, with Michigan changing on August 29. In the contest for 11 electoral votes in Arizona, Trump leads 49% to 48%; this is a narrower margin than the 0.3% that Biden won four years prior, and it would necessitate an automatic recount in the state. With independents, Trump leads by a margin of more than 12 points. In Nevada, where six electoral votes are at stake, Trump gains a 48%–47% lead thanks to a 9.5% lead among independent voters. The state was lost by Trump in both 2016 and 2020. In North Carolina, however, Trump leads Harris 49% to 48%, which is a smaller margin of victory than the 1.34% he won in 2020, even though Harris leads with independents 50% to 46%. In the Tar Heel State, he might receive sixteen electoral votes. The only state that deviates from the norm is Georgia, where Harris leads the contest for 16 electoral votes 48% to 47.6%. With independents, she has the narrowest lead of 45.2% to 45.1%.

Trump has a slight lead in important states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but these are still very competitive states.

FAQs

In which states is Trump leading by a narrow margin?
According to recent polls, Donald Trump is leading Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by a narrow margin; these states are essential to his chances of winning.
How reliable are these surveys?
A statistical dead heat currently exists among the states, indicating that elections are extremely close and could go either way on election day.