Tropical threat looms near Florida next week as forecasters warn of possible storm formation

Forecasters are monitoring a weather system near Florida that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm between July 15 and 18, according to AccuWeather.

While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects no tropical cyclone activity in the next seven days, AccuWeather says a weak system could form in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico or off the Southeast coast of the US. That’s the same area where Tropical Storm Chantal developed earlier this month.

“There is a low risk of a tropical depression or tropical storm forming from July 15–18,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster. “If anything develops, it would likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm, and that’s if anything develops at all.”


Current conditions, including Saharan dust and strong wind shear, are limiting tropical development across the Atlantic basin. However, forecasters say a cold front dipping into the Gulf next week could introduce a spin in the atmosphere, increasing the formation chance closer to land.

Even if no storm forms, coastal areas could still see increased rainfall, thunderstorms, rough surf, and rip currents. “Should a center form, more substantial rain and wind, with building surf, would unfold,” AccuWeather reported.

Historically, July storms tend to form closer to the US, including in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and southwestern Atlantic. Later in the season, more storms tend to develop from tropical waves coming off the African coast.

As of July 10, the NHC is tracking four tropical waves across the Atlantic basin. None are expected to form into named storms over the next several days.

If a new tropical storm does form, it will be named Dexter, the fourth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. So far, Andrea, Barry, and Chantal have already formed, all ahead of historical averages.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity usually occurring in mid-August through September.

Florida residents are advised to stay alert and monitor updates, especially with sea surface temperatures in the Gulf running above normal and an active season predicted.