Top data analyst says Democrats’ midterm landslide odds are surging, with help from Texas

A top data analyst says Democrats now have a much higher chance of a landslide win in the midterm elections. Harry Enten said Democratic chances are “skyrocketing” based on new voting trends and data. He explained that Democrats are expected to do far better than Kamala Harris’s 2024 results in strong blue states.

States like New York and California are becoming even more Democratic, helping the party build big House majorities. Enten said Republicans are losing their remaining House seats in these blue states. CNN anchor Kate Bolduan then shifted focus to Texas, a state that usually supports Republicans, as stated by Media ITE.

Texas election warning

Bolduan noted that Texas has been under the spotlight due to redistricting and recent political activity. Enten said the recent Texas 9th district special election is a major warning sign for Republicans. He stressed that the Texas election result “did not happen in isolation.” Enten said Republicans tried to create more GOP-friendly seats in Texas through redistricting.


Despite those efforts, voting numbers in Texas are now shifting toward Democrats, which worries Republicans. Enten pointed out that Donald Trump won Texas by 14 points, showing how red the state used to be. But now, the generic House ballot in Texas shows Republicans leading by just 1–2 points, as noted by Media ITE.

House seats in danger

Enten said this proves the political environment has moved left in Texas. He compared the current situation to 2018, when Republicans barely won House races. Enten said Democrats can now win many seats from big states, both blue states and even red Texas. This combination could help Democrats take control of the House easily. Bolduan then asked about prediction markets and what they say about the House elections.

Enten shared that the chance of a Republican collapse in the House has jumped sharply. Three months ago, the chance of the GOP falling below 193 House seats was just 8%. That number has now jumped to 26%, showing rising Democratic momentum, as cited by Media ITE. Enten said this means it’s not just about Democrats winning — Republicans could lose badly. Overall, Enten argued that Texas, blue states, and national mood shifts are fueling Democratic landslide chances.

FAQs

Q1. Why are Democrats expected to do well in the midterm elections?

Democrats are gaining support in big states and even in Texas, making a strong House win more likely.

Q2. Why is Texas important for Democrats in the midterms?

Texas voting trends are shifting left, which could help Democrats win more House seats.