This asteroid has 1-in-63 chance of hitting the Earth in 2032

An asteroid, named 2024 YR4, is set to pass by Earth in 2032, with a 1-in-63 chance of striking the planet. This newly discovered asteroid has a 1.2% probability of colliding with Earth, according to astronomers from NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile.

What is asteroid 2024 YR4?

The Chile-based station first spotted this asteroid on December 27, 2024, and immediately reported it to the Minor Planet Center, which acts as a clearing house for positional measurements of small bodies such as asteroids and comets, Gizmodo reported.

NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has stated that the asteroid could impact Earth six times between 2032 and 2071, with the greatest chance occurring on December 22, 2032. The probability of a collision decreases with each subsequent pass.

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How large is 2024 YR4?

Based on estimates from its reflected light, the asteroid measures between 40 and 90 metres (130 to 300 feet) in size. Currently, it is moving away from the planet at 13.26 kilometres (8.24 miles) per second.

Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), explained that 2024 YR4 is moving away from the Sun, becoming fainter and more distant.

“The key thing is that it’s fading. It requires larger and larger telescopes to detect, and by April we think it’ll be too faint to observe with even the largest telescopes,” he told Gizmodo.

How significant is the risk?

The asteroid could impact Earth somewhere along a risk corridor that stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

According to CNEOS, the asteroid is currently rated Torino Scale 3, which is rare for an asteroid, as this rating only occurs when the object is larger than 20 metres (65 feet) and has an impact probability of 1% or higher.

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Smaller objects, even with higher probabilities—up to 100%—are often rated 0 on the Torino Scale because they usually burn up in the atmosphere, causing minimal damage.

FAQs

1. What is the current location of asteroid 2024 YR4 in relation to Earth?
As of January 31, the asteroid was 48 million km (30 million miles) from Earth. It is moving away from the planet along its outbound path around the Sun and is expected to return to the Earth's vicinity in 2028.

2. When is it expected to approach Earth again?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 will approach Earth again in 2028, coming within 20 times the Earth-Moon distance. There is no chance of impact during that passage.