Sworn enemies join forces against Putin — Russian TV warns Baku could taken in 72 hours

Azerbaijan and Armenia, longtime rivals, are now finding common ground. Interestingly, this common consensus is not in friendship, but in their mutual frustration with Russia. Tensions between Moscow and Baku have risen dramatically, while Armenia indicates that it may no longer trust its former ally.

In the midst of rising tensions with Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia are moving closer together, challenging Moscow's long-held influence in the South Caucasus.

What triggered Azerbaijan’s anger toward Moscow?

A series of diplomatic spats, arrests, and territorial disputes have brought Baku and Yerevan closer together, jeopardizing key Russian trade routes and weakening Russia's grip on the region.

Seven citizens of the former Soviet republic were arrested in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg last month, marking the beginning of the situation. Moscow held them as part of an investigation into 25 years of mafia-style killings.

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Two Azerbaijani suspects died in custody within a few days. Others showed up in court with obvious bruises and injuries. An angry response came from Azerbaijan. Russian cultural events were canceled, a group of Russian IT workers were arrested and charged with cybercrime and drug trafficking, and the Kremlin-owned Sputnik news agency's Baku bureau was raided.

Could Russia really threaten Baku with invasion?

The threat that Baku could be "taken in three days" was then broadcast on Russian state television, reiterating language from prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, the likelihood of war is low.

However, the rift is real and dangerous for Moscow because Armenia is siding with its old adversary to drive Putin out of the South Caucasus after a 30-year history of bloody wars with Azerbaijan, as per a report by The Telegraph.

Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan suddenly on the same page?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on July 10. The subject of their direct discussions was the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed route that would connect southern Armenia with Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave.

The corridor would be a part of the "Middle Corridor" trade route from China and Central Asia to Europe, fulfilling a pan-Turkic dream of physically connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey.

As part of the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) was supposed to keep an eye on the route.

However, that agreement is now in jeopardy, though, as President Aliyev wants to remove Moscow from the agreement and give Azerbaijan complete control.

Is Armenia moving away from Moscow and toward Turkey?

Since Armenia and Turkey do not have formal diplomatic relations, President Pashinyan's visit to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul last month was a significant meeting that marked a shift in momentum.

What role does the West want to play in this corridor battle?

Although Armenia had previously opposed the Zangezur Corridor, Erdoğan said the country was now taking a "more flexible approach" to it. In an attempt to completely exclude Russia, the West has proposed placing the route under the control of an impartial foreign entity, such as an American or Swiss company, as per a report by The Telegraph.

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Moscow has deteriorated, particularly since 2023 when Baku's lightning offensive to retake the Nagorno-Karabakh region saw Russian peacekeepers mainly stand aside. Almost all Armenians left, and Azerbaijan was charged with ethnic cleansing.

Since then, President Pashinyan has leaned Western and pursued reconciliation with Baku, arguing that a hostile relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Turkey threatens Armenia's long-term future.

What does this mean for Russia’s economic interests and trade routes?

Recasting the standoff as a Western conspiracy, the Kremlin blames MI6 and Turkey for inciting unrest. Long before Yekaterinburg, Russia accidentally shot down an Azerbaijan Airlines plane last Christmas, which marked the beginning of the cracks. Given that Russia is looking for ways to circumvent Western sanctions, losing access to the corridor could have a significant negative economic impact.

As it works behind the scenes to try to save its relations, Russia will continue to blame the West.

FAQs

Why are Azerbaijan and Russia fighting now?
Azerbaijan is furious about the deaths of two of its citizens in Russian custody, as well as Moscow's overall handling of regional affairs.

Are Armenia and Azerbaijan truly working together?
While not allies, both countries are united in their desire to drive Russian influence out of the South Caucasus.