Superbugs could kill millions and trigger $2 trillion economic meltdown by 2050

By 2050, if the increase in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is not stopped, superbugs could kill millions more people and cost the world economy around $2 trillion annually, according to new modelling.

The Centre for Global Development, a report supported by the UK government, cautions that rising AMR rates might deplete global GDP by $1.7 trillion a year over the next 25 years.

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Economies such as the US, UK, and EU are projected to suffer some of the heaviest financial blows, leading critics to slam recent cuts to foreign aid budgets as short-sighted and harmful.

UK scraps Fleming Fund, aimed at AMR combat

These concerns follow the UK’s recent decision to scrap funding for the Fleming Fund, a programme dedicated to combating AMR in lower-income nations. Similar aid reductions have been made by the US, which slashed its overseas aid by 80%, and various European countries.

According to the study's worst-case scenarios, Anthony McDonnell, the principal author, cautioned that these aid cuts could hasten resistance rates worldwide. Even nations that are now efficiently handling the threat run the danger of seeing rising infection rates and death tolls in the absence of specialised AMR measures.

The modelling, which examined the economic and health burden of AMR across 122 nations, forecasts stark outcomes.

The worst-case scenario is that by 2050, China's yearly GDP losses might amount to $722 billion, the US $295.7 billion, the EU $187 billion, Japan $65.7 billion, and the UK $58.6 billion.

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Double the cost of treating non-resistant illnesses

According to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the number of deaths from AMR is expected to increase by 60% by 2050, reaching 1.34 million deaths in the US and 184,000 in the UK annually.

Additionally, a sharp increase in drug-resistant bacterial infections is anticipated, which will result in more hospital stays, longer treatment durations, and higher medical expenses.

The cost of treating these infections is already around double that of treating non-resistant illnesses.

Global economy to be affected

Globally, the health costs of AMR could rise to $176 billion a year. The UK’s annual health bill could surge from $900 million to $3.7 billion, and the US from $15.5 billion to nearly $57 billion.

The knock-on effect would shrink workforces too: 0.8% in the UK, 0.6% in the EU, and 0.4% in the US. However, the study suggests that investing in solutions, such as developing new antibiotics and improving infection treatment, could deliver substantial economic benefits.

By 2050, the US economy could grow by $156.2 billion annually and the UK by $12 billion if action is taken.

IHME's Dr. Mohsen Naghavi emphasised that AMR is becoming a bigger threat. Once-treatable illnesses could turn deadly in the absence of immediate, concerted action.

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Policy reforms, the creation of novel medications, and increased public knowledge of the limitations of antibiotics in treating viral infections are all necessary for solutions.

A representative representing the UK government reiterated their dedication to combating AMR by developing vaccines, reducing the use of antibiotics in agriculture, and supporting novel treatments. According to the administration, it is still working with other countries to stop the development of antibiotic resistance.