SpaceX stock today: SPCX rebounds 4.89% after 9% crash; can Adam Spatacco's prediction about Musk's Baron conference spark a rally?

SpaceX stock is showing signs of recovery after Thursday's 9.05% crash. Shares closed at $123.62 on November 5 but climbed to $129.66 in Friday's premarket trading, gaining 4.89%. The rebound has put Elon Musk's company back in focus, especially ahead of his appearance at the Baron Capital investment conference. Motley Fool contributor Adam Spatacco believes the event could become a catalyst for a rally, but the stock needs more than an optimistic conversation to reverse its recent losses.

SpaceX stock price: How much has SPCX fallen after Thursday's selloff?

Thursday's decline was particularly sharp because it added to an already weak month for SpaceX shareholders. The stock has lost 10.32% over five trading days and 28.13% over one month. It is still up 7.53% over three months, but its longer-term performance remains under pressure.

At $129.66, SPCX would still be well below its recent trading levels. The stock has struggled to sustain gains since its June 2026 listing. It previously reached an all-time high of around $226 before giving back a large part of those gains.


Trader Ali Martinez has pointed out that SPCX has broken below the middle of its parallel trading channel. He believes this could expose the stock to another 12% decline towards $108. That would bring it closer to its reported all-time low of $104.83.

Martinez has also linked some of the selling pressure to an October share unlock involving around 2 billion shares. The additional supply could make it harder for the stock to maintain a recovery.

Adam Spatacco's SpaceX stock prediction: Can Musk's Baron conference spark a rally?

The timing of Friday's conference is important. Musk is scheduled to join Ron Baron, founder of Baron Capital, for a fireside conversation at the firm's 33rd annual investment conference at Lincoln Center in New York. The session is listed for 1:10 p.m. Eastern Time.

Spatacco believes Musk could use the discussion to provide updates that help investors understand SpaceX's next phase of growth. Areas to watch include Starlink Mobile, enterprise AI contracts, Grok and the company's plans for computing infrastructure in orbit.

Baron Capital's long relationship with Musk is another reason the discussion has attracted attention. The firm invested approximately $400 million in Tesla between 2014 and 2016. Its second-quarter 2026 letter estimated the profit from that investment at $7.7 billion. Baron Capital has also owned SpaceX since 2017, with the company representing more than 30% of its $69 billion in assets under management as of June 30.

Spatacco has predicted that SpaceX shares could experience a sharp rally after the conference, particularly if Musk provides encouraging updates. However, he has also warned against buying shares simply because of expectations surrounding the conversation.

SpaceX Q3 results: Revenue jumps 161% as Starlink and AI businesses grow

There is a financial reason behind Spatacco's optimism. SpaceX reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161% increase from $5.6 billion a year earlier. Net income reached $4.4 billion, compared with a net loss of $1.1 billion in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.8 billion.

Its Connectivity segment, which includes Starlink, recorded revenue growth of 69%. Revenue from the Super Intelligence segment increased around 830% year over year to $7.56 billion.

SpaceX stock forecast: Analysts see a strong recovery ahead

Wall Street's outlook remains positive despite the latest decline. According to the analyst ratings cited by TipRanks, 29 analysts have Buy ratings, five have Hold ratings and one has a Sell rating. The average 12-month price target stands at $250.34.