Social Security cuts could hit these 15 states hardest: How much could retirees in Connecticut, New Jersey, New Hampshire and other states lose each month?

Social Security cuts: Social Security beneficiaries in Connecticut could see the biggest monthly benefit cut if the retirement trust fund runs out of money with an estimated loss of $556. New Jersey follows with a potential reduction of $554 a month and New Hampshire ranks third at $553, as per state level estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The estimates come from CRFB's, No State Spared: Mapping the Impact of Social Security's Insolvency. The analysis models what a 24% reduction in retirement benefits would mean for beneficiaries using the latest available state-level data.

The projections come as the Social Security Administration's 2026 Trustees Report warns that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund could run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. And once that happens, continuing income would cover only 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits.

15 states where Social Security cuts could exceed $515 a month

CRFB estimates that average monthly Social Security benefit reductions would exceed $500 in 29 states under its 24% reduction scenario. Connecticut faces the largest estimated loss, while Vermont ranks 15th.

The 15 states with the highest projected average monthly reductions are in the table.

The estimates represent average monthly losses, not a fixed amount that every beneficiary in these states would lose. The national average monthly reduction in CRFB's analysis is $500.

Why Social Security benefits could be reduced in 2032

The potential cuts are tied to the financial condition of the OASI Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivor benefits.

The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects that the fund's reserves will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, the program would no longer have enough money to pay all scheduled benefits under current law.

Continuing income would cover approximately 78% of scheduled benefits at the time of depletion, which will leave a 22% shortfall. The Trustees also project that Social Security's total costs will exceed its total income in 2026 and remain higher throughout the 75-year projection period.

Why some states face larger Social Security benefit losses

The estimated reductions differ across states as average Social Security payments are not same nationwide.

CRFB used 2024 state-level beneficiary data to calculate the potential impact of 24% reduction on today's retirees. Its analysis found that average monthly losses would range from $459 to $556 across the 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The report also estimates that an across-the-board 24% reduction in benefits today would mean $345 billion less in annual Social Security payments nationwide, equivalent to 1.1% of US gross domestic product.

West Virginia would face the largest reduction relative to its economy with lost benefits equivalent to 1.9% of state GDP. Mississippi & Vermont follow at 1.8% each.

Why the 24% Social Security cut estimate differs from the latest forecast

The state level figures use an earlier projection from the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report. Which estimated that benefits would need to be reduced by 24% after the retirement trust fund ran out of reserves.

The 2026 Trustees Report has since updated that outlook. It projects that 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits would remain payable after the OASI Trust Fund is depleted. So that implies a potential reduction of approximately 22%.

But its state-by-state estimates have not been recalculated using the latest 22% projection.